Global inflation, which has suppressed risk assets like cryptocurrencies and tech stocks, is set to fall to 3.5% by the end of 2025, thanks largely to a resilient world economy, the International Monetary Fund said.
“The battle against inflation is almost won. After peaking at 9.4% year on year in the third quarter of 2022, we now project headline inflation will fall to 3.5% by the end of next year,” said IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas in an Oct. 22 statement accompanying the IMF’s World Economic Outlook report.
IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas delivering the World Economic Outlook forecast in Washington. Source: IMF
“In most countries, inflation is now hovering close to central bank targets. Now inflation came down while the global economy remained resilient. Growth is projected to hold steady at 3.2% in 2024 and 2025,” he added.
Lower inflation may provide various benefits, including decreased cost of living and interest rates, which could be a boon for risk assets like cryptocurrencies.
Still, Gourinchas noted that escalating geopolitical and trade tensions in the Middle East and a looming presidential election in the United States create considerable uncertainty.
“These downside risks include an escalation in regional conflicts, especially in the Middle East, which could pose serious risks for commodity markets.”
Despite the optimistic predictions, the IMF called for a “policy triple pivot” to fix interest rates, tackle government spending, and introduce key reforms to boost productivity.
The report said a decline in inflation while avoiding a global recession should be seen as a “major achievement.” Still, it conceded that the global economy’s growth outlook was largely unchanged and remained at its “weakest level in decades.”
The IMF said global growth remains at its weakest level in decades. Source: IMF
The IMF said that the US is positioned to experience the fastest growth rate, and robust expansions are also probable in emerging Asian economies due to robust artificial intelligence-related investments.
Still, the agency lowered its outlook for other advanced economies, including several large European countries and some emerging markets, blaming intensifying global conflicts and ongoing risks to commodity prices.
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“Projected slowdowns in the largest emerging market and developing economies imply a longer path to close the income gaps between poor and rich countries. Having growth stuck in low gear could also further exacerbate income inequality within economies,” the IMF said.
Inflation may still get worse, says billionaire
While economists forecast slowing inflation in the coming months, billionaire hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said he expects the opposite.
On Oct. 22, Jones said he was long Bitcoin, gold, and a basket of other commodities due to his growing concern with the debt the US has accumulated over the last few years.
The Congressional Budget Office estimates the federal government will amass a $1.9 trillion deficit in the 2024 fiscal year. The CBO said that figure is on track to expand to $2.8 trillion by 2034.
“The playbook to get out of this is that you inflate your way out,” Jones said, pointing to Japan as an example of a country already pursuing this strategy.
“We’re going to be broke really quickly unless we get serious about dealing with our spending issues.”
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