With eight days until the United States general election on Nov. 5, cryptocurrency and stock trading platform Robinhood announced it had introduced contracts for certain users to bet on the outcome of the presidential election between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
In an Oct. 28 notice, Robinhood said its derivatives arm had launched the US presidential elections contracts, allowing only US citizens to trade based on their predictions on whether Trump or Vice President Harris will win in 2024. According to the platform, the contracts will be paid after the election results are certified by Congress on Jan. 6, 2025.
“Robinhood is committed to democratizing finance for all, regardless of who is in office,” said the platform. “Although we are allowing our customers to speculate on the outcome of the 2024 Presidential Election, results and real-time market fluctuation do not indicate an endorsement of either candidate from Robinhood.”
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The announcement followed derivatives exchange Kalshi winning in court against the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, allowing the platform to offer US-based users contracts for betting on election outcomes.
Polymarket, which offers contracts on the presidential race and more obscure events — e.g., “Will Kamala go on Joe Rogan before the election?” — does not allow US residents to place bets.
The value of each election contract “can equal up to $1.00, but may have a notional value less than $1.00,” according to the derivatives platform. Robinhood’s terms and conditions stated that some US residents would not be allowed to enter bids for Harris or Trump, including those who work for the candidates’ campaigns, are paid employees of political action committees, and White House staff.
Vote counting is expected to take days
Robinhood will allow users to trade on the presidential election contracts until Jan. 5, 2025. Though many pundits expect the 2024 election to be exceptionally close, with some states taking days to count ballots and certify the results, media outlets called the 2020 results on Nov. 7 — four days after Election Day.
The US election will determine which political party will control the US Presidency, House of Representatives and Senate starting in 2025 and shape the future of policy in the country.
Many polls show Harris and Trump in a dead heat in battleground states, with money from crypto interest groups flooding to support or oppose candidates running for congressional seats.
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