Binance chief executive officer Changpeng Zhao said that trading activity across major crypto exchanges had increased between 3 to 5 times. This is a bullish sign as it “means there are a lot more people coming into the industry.” While quantitative easing and fresh money coming into cryptocurrencies is a positive development, the bull run might not start immediately. However, in the long run, as the supply of fiat currency increases, Zhao said that “mathematics will eventually work” as Bitcoin is a limited asset.
In the short-term, Bitcoin’s halving is an important event that can increase the volatility. PlanB,the creator of the stock-to-flow (S2F) Bitcoin price model expects the price action to follow the model. If that happens, Bitcoin’s price could embark on a huge bull run following the halving in May. However, if the price action does not follow the model, PlanB has said that he would discard the model.
Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360
Grayscale’s ten crypto funds had their best quarter on record with an inflow of $503.7 million, according to the latest quarterly report released by the company. The company said that 88% of the investments were carried out by hedge funds. This shows that even during the current uncertain times, investors are flocking to cryptocurrencies. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust now holds about 1.7% of the available supply of Bitcoin.
The fundamentals of the sector are improving and the long-term looks even more positive. Nonetheless, the short-term looks uncertain due to the ongoing crisis. Let’s look at the major cryptocurrencies and analyze whether they are likely to resume their uptrend or enter into a correction once again.
BTC/USD
The breakdown from the bearish rising wedge pattern has not resulted in a sharp fall. Though Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below the 20-day EMA ($6,827) on April 15, the bears could not sustain the lower levels.
BTC USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
On April 16, the BTC/USD pair rallied from a low of $6,471.71 and broke above the 50-day SMA ($6.997), which shows strong demand at lower levels.
The bears might present resistance at $7,454.17 but if this level is crossed, the uptrend is likely to resume. The first target is a move to $8,000, then a rally to $9,000 is possible.
Contrary to our assumption, if the bulls fail to propel the price above $7,454.17, the pair might remain range-bound for a few days. The trend will turn negative on a break below $6,471.71 and traders can trail their stop loss on the long positions to $6,000.
ETH/USD
Ether (ETH) finally broke above the 50-day SMA ($161.52) on April 16, which is a positive sign. If the buyers can push the biggest altcoin above $176.103, the momentum is likely to pick up.
ETH USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Above $176.103, the ETH/USD pair can rally to $208.50 and then to $250. The gradually upsloping 20-day EMA and the RSI in the positive territory also suggests that the bulls have the upper hand.
Our bullish view will be invalidated if the pair turns down from the current levels and plummets below $148. For now, the stop loss on the long positions can be maintained at $135. The stops can be trailed to $145 after the pair closes (UTC time) above $177.
XRP/USD
XRP dipped below the 20-day EMA ($0.185) on April 15 but quickly reversed direction on the next day and scaled above the 50-day SMA ($0.186). This is a positive sign as it indicates demand at lower levels.
XRP–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The bulls will now try to carry the price to $0.20570 where the bears might again mount a stiff resistance. If the XRP/USD pair turns down from this level, it might remain range-bound for a few more days. The flattish 20-day EMA and the RSI just above the 50 level also point to a few days of consolidation.
However, if the bulls can propel the pair above $0.20570, a rally to $0.25 is likely. Conversely, the pair will turn negative on a break below $0.15708. For now, the stops on the long positions can be maintained at $0.155.
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash (BCH) bounced from just above the psychological support of $200 on April 16. This is a positive sign as it shows that the bulls are unlikely to surrender without a tough fight.
BCH–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
Currently, the buyers are facing resistance at the 50-day SMA ($242). If the bulls can propel the price above this level, a move to $280 is likely. Once $280 is overcome, a rally to $350 will be on the cards.
Conversely, if the price turns down from the current levels, the BCH/USD pair might again dip to $200. A break below this level will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears. Therefore, the traders can protect their remaining long positions with the stops below $197.
BSV/USD
Bitcoin SV (BSV) dipped below both the moving averages on April 16 but turned around from $172. Both moving averages are close to one another and the RSI is just above the midpoint, which suggests a balance between buyers and sellers.
BSV–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The bulls will now try to carry the price to the overhead resistance at $227. If the BSV/USD pair turns down from this level, it is likely to remain range-bound between $227 and $170 for a few more days.
On the other hand, if the bulls can scale the price above $227, a rally to $268.842 and then to $319.424 is possible. The pair will turn negative on a break below $170. Therefore, the stops on the long positions can be maintained at $165.
LTC/USD
Litecoin (LTC) reversed direction from $37.8768 on April 16, which shows that the bulls continue to buy the dips. If the buyers can propel the altcoin above the $43.67-$47.6551 resistance zone, the momentum is likely to pick up.
LTC–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is close to the midpoint, which suggests a balance between the buyers and sellers.
If the LTC/USD pair turns down from $43.67, it is likely to remain range-bound for a few more days. The pair will turn negative on a break below $35.8582. Therefore, the stops on the long positions can be retained at $35.
EOS/USD
On April 16, EOS bounced from $2.3371, which shows that the bulls are attempting to form a higher high closer to $2.4001. The altcoin is likely to pick up momentum on a close (UTC time) above $2.8319.
EOS–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The 20-day EMA ($2.50) has flattened out and the RSI is just above the midpoint, which suggests that the bulls are attempting to gain the upper hand. The levels to watch on the upside are $3.1802 and above it $3.8811.
However, if the EOS/USD pair turns down from the current levels, it will be a negative sign. For now, the stops on the long positions can be retained at $2 but can be trailed higher to $2.25 after the pair sustains above $3.20 for four hours.
BNB/USD
Binance Coin (BNB) again took support and bounced off the 20-day EMA ($14.25) on April 16. This is a positive sign as it confirms that the 20-day EMA has flipped from resistance to support.
BNB–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI is trading in the positive territory, which shows that bulls have the upper hand. The momentum is likely to pick up on a close (UTC time) above $16.
Though $17.5 might act as a resistance, we expect this level to be crossed. The next level to watch on the upside is $21.50. Therefore, the stops on the long positions can be maintained at $13.
Contrary to our assumption, if the BNB/USD pair turns down from the current levels, it might remain range-bound for a few more days. The pair will turn negative on a break below $13.47.
XTZ/USD
Tezos (XTZ) rebounded sharply from the 20-day EMA ($1.90) on April 16, which is a positive sign. If the bulls can now push the price above the immediate resistance at $2.1850, a rally to $2.75, followed by a move to $2.98 will be on the cards.
XTZ–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The moving averages are on the verge of a bullish crossover and the RSI has also risen from close to the midpoint. This suggests that bulls have the upper hand.
If the bulls fail to scale the price above $2.185, the XTZ/USD pair might remain range-bound for a few more days. The pair will turn negative on a break below the immediate support at $1.8271. The traders can trail the stops on the long positions to $1.75 after the pair sustains above $2.2 for four hours.
LINK/USD
Chainlink (LINK) rebounded sharply from the moving averages on April 16, which is a positive sign. This shows that the bulls are keen to buy on dips to strong support levels.
LINK–USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The moving averages have completed a bullish crossover and the RSI continues to trade in the positive territory, which suggests that bulls are in command. If the LINK/USD pair can break above $3.6412, a move to $4.9762 is possible.
Though the bears might mount a stiff resistance at $4.2023, we expect this level to be crossed.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from $3.6412, the pair might remain range-bound for a few more days. Our bullish view will be invalidated if the bears sink the pair below the moving averages.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by HitBTC exchange.