Former President Donald Trump’s 20-point lead in the United States presidential race over Vice President Kamala Harris on Polymarket has sparked manipulation concerns.
Tarek Mansour — founder of the Kalshi prediction market — recently argued that the results are accurate and not caused by inorganic manipulation, when he presented comparable data from Kalshi.
Mansour began by rejecting the media claim that a handful of large whales are skewing the odds for the November election in favor of Trump. According to the Kalshi founder: “The median bet size on Harris is larger than the median bet size on Donald Trump,” with the median bet for Harris coming in at $85 compared with Trump’s $58.
The founder also said that more individuals on the Kalshi platform are placing bets on Trump, and the 20-point lead reflected on Polymarket roughly tracks with the betting Trump will win on Kalshi.
Kalshi 2024 election odds. Source: Tarek Mansour.
Mansour continued by noting that Kalshi is an “American-only” prediction market — unlike Polymarket — countering popular claims that the current prediction market odds are the result of foreign manipulation. He concluded his argument by saying: “Prediction markets are the new source of truth, free from bias.”
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The new source of truth and a public good?
Industry executives and political pundits have debated the value of prediction markets and their utility compared with traditional polling. Some people, including billionaire Elon Musk, claim that prediction markets are more accurate than polls.
Musk said that results are more accurate when money is on the line. Still, critics point out that because people in the United States are not allowed to use Polymarket, it raises some concerns about the validity of the results from that platform.
Harris was leading Trump on Polymarket for portions of August and much of September. Even when Trump managed to gain the lead, it was typically by a few percentage points. Then, during the first half of October, the former president began sharply increasing his odds to 60.3% on the prediction platform of securing the Oval Office.
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