Polymarket users bet on Canadian PM resigning before official announcement

Crypto betting platform Polymarket gave users 80% odds that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would resign on Jan. 6.
Crypto betting platform Polymarket gave users 80% odds that Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau would resign on Jan. 6.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has announced he will step back as his political party’s leader and resign as prime minister once officials choose a successor. 

In a Jan. 6 press conference, Trudeau said Canada’s Liberal Party would select the next leader “through a robust, nationwide, competitive process.” Reports had suggested that the prime minister intended to announce his resignation amid calls from many members of Parliament to step down.

Canada, Politics, Government, Betting

Canadian PM Justin Trudeau addressing the media on Jan. 6. Source: Guardian News

The resignation announcement came less than a month after Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland said she would step down, citing differences of opinion with Trudeau over how to handle potential tariffs that US President-elect Donald Trump has threatened to impose on Canada.

“This country deserves a real choice in the next election, and it has become clear to me that if I’m having to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best option in that election,” said Trudeau.

Related: Trudeau announces $1.8B package to boost Canada’s AI sector

Many in the crypto industry criticized Trudeau’s handling of a 2022 strike led by Canadian truckers blocking the streets of Ottawa in an apparent protest of the nation’s COVID-19 restrictions. The prime minister invoked the country’s Emergencies Act to freeze the protesters’ bank accounts and monitor “large and suspicious transactions,” including those made using digital assets.

Political bets on Polymarket surge

Prior to the Jan. 6 press conference, the odds of Trudeau resigning on cryptocurrency betting platform Polymarket steadily increased, with users betting he intended to step down by the end of the day. The website also gave users the choice to bet on who could become Canada’s next prime minister after the next election, with 91% odds on Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre at the time of publication.

Canada, Politics, Government, Betting

Polymarket odds on Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau resigning on Jan. 6. Source: Polymarket

Activity on Polymarket surged in 2024 as many customers used the platform for political bets, including possible outcomes in the US election and Trump’s cabinet picks. Though the political bets were only available for users outside the United States, many pointed out that a few whales pouring millions of dollars into Polymarket could influence the odds.

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