Prediction marketplace Kalshi has rolled out more political betting markets in an eleventh-hour bid to woo users ahead of the United States presidential election on Nov. 5.
The contracts cover events ranging from the outcome of an Ohio referendum to the last state to be called in the presidential race by the Associated Press (AP), according to regulatory filings with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Since Oct. 31, Kalshi has registered more than two dozen contracts, mostly related to the upcoming US elections, according to CFTC data.
Source: Kalshi
Related: Election betting market Kalshi to take USDC deposits
Kalshi’s event contracts — winner-take-all financial derivatives known as binary options — are the first in the US to let traders bet on election outcomes, including the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican candidate Donald Trump
As of Nov. 1, Kalshi’s flagship market — “Who will win the Presidential election?” — has bootstrapped some $144 million in total betting volume since listing on Oct. 7, according to Kalshi’s website.
Kalshi’s odds heavily favored Trump in October — at one point pegging Trump’s chance of winning at nearly 65% — but the gap has narrowed in the past 48 hours.
According to Kalshi, Trump has a 56% chance of winning the presidency, versus 44% for Harris, as of Nov. 1.
Source: Polymarket
Kalshi is still playing catchup with Polymarket, a Web3-native prediction market built on the Polygon network.
As of Nov. 1, nearly $2.9 billion rides on the outcome of the November presidential election on Polymarket, according to its website.
Polygon’s bettors are generally more bullish on Trump and put his odds at around 61% as of Nov. 1.
On Oct. 28, Kalshi started taking deposits in USD Coin (USDC), a popular stablecoin, in a bid to pull more crypto-native users.
Now, more political betting platforms are joining the fray.
On Oct. 28, cryptocurrency and stock trading platform Robinhood introduced contracts for certain users to bet on the outcome of the presidential election.
US regulators said election prediction markets such as Kalshi threaten the integrity of elections, but industry analysts say they often capture public sentiment more accurately than polls.
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