Bitcoin (BTC) is likely to underperform the stock market on a risk-adjusted basis in 2024, while gold may come out ahead, says Bloomberg's senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone.
Despite the bullish narrative around the recent spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) approval and the upcoming Bitcoin halving, macroeconomic factors may prevent the largest cryptocurrency from reaching new all-time highs in 2024.
In particular, McGlone believes market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates, which usually has a boosting effect on risk-on assets like Bitcoin, are largely misplaced.
“The Fed will not ease with the ease it has in the past because of inflation it created with easing too much,” he pointed out in an exclusive Cointelegraph interview.
McGlone expects the U.S. economy to finally enter a recession this year, which should drive the stock market down. Bitcoin, as a leading indicator for risk assets, is likely to suffer in such an environment.
“When the stock market and beta goes down Bitcoin goes down more,” McGlone said.
According to the analyst, gold and long Treasury bonds will likely be the assets that will come out ahead in this environment.
To find out more about McGlone’s forecast for 2024, watch the full interview on our channel and don’t forget to subscribe!