Donald Trump’s “Yes” votes on the leading decentralized prediction market are largely controlled by a few mysterious entities as political bettors place millions of dollars on the Nov. 5 United States presidential election.
Over 50% of the Trump shares have been acquired by five whales, or large investors, according to pseudonymous political bettor Domer.
This could result in a payday exceeding $81 million for the whales, Domer wrote in an Oct. 31 X post:
“Trump Yes shares are very highly concentrated. 5 fat cat accounts own 50% of the 162 million shares -- including the Le Giga Whale with nearly 1/3rd by himself. Those 5 will be paid out $81 million if Trump wins.”
Trump “Yes” shareholders on Polymarket. Source: Domer
In contrast, shares for Vice President Kamala Harris are more distributed, with the top five shareholders holding 18% of her “Yes” votes. Harris’ largest shareholder has only 4.4% of her shares, while Trump’s top shareholder controls 29.1%, Domer added.
Harris “Yes” shareholders on Polymarket. Source: Domer
The revelation comes hours ahead of the US election, which is becoming a focal point for crypto investors, as it could shape the regulatory landscape of the industry for the next four years.
At least four of the top six Trump bettors, including accounts “zxgngl” and “Fredi9999,” may be controlled by one entity with high confidence in a Trump victory, Domer told Cointelegraph:
“My guess is it is a true believer who is very rich and trying to make a big bet. He is getting more confident as the price goes higher and is in a confirmation bias loop where new information keeps increasing his confidence.”
Related: Stablecoins essential for US dollar’s future, says Paxos CEO
Trump continues to lead, but polling results differ
Despite some weekend volatility, Trump remains in the lead on the top decentralized betting market, Polymarket.
Trump’s odds for a presidential victory currently stand at 56.9%, while Harris’ are at 43%, according to Polymarket data.
Trump vs Harris, betting market. Source: Polymarket
Still, Trump’s lead is smaller in other betting markets. Over on Kalshi, 54% of bettors are anticipating a Trump victory, while 46% have gone for Harris.
Trump vs Harris, betting market. Source: Kalshi
Traditional polling systems paint an entirely different picture. Harris’ odds of a presidential victory are at 49%, compared to Trump’s 48%, according to The New York Times’ national polling average.
Trump vs Harris, national polling average. Source: New York Times
Decentralized prediction markets may offer more accurate predictions than traditional polling systems, as investors are voting with their savings, according to billionaire Elon Musk.
The Polymarket odds flipped in Trump’s favor on Oct. 4, marking a sharp reversal from September. By Oct. 12, Trump was leading by over 10 points, Cointelegraph reported.
Related: Coinbase hit with $300M token listing allegations by Sun and Cronje
Bitcoin investors take profit as Trump’s odds see volatility
The volatility in Polymarket odds, paired with Harris’ newfound lead on traditional polling systems, has inspired some profit-taking.
This was the main reason for Bitcoin’s (BTC) correction, according to Valentin Fournier, analyst at BRN. He told Cointelegraph:
“At the end of last week, newly released polls showed Harris with a narrow 2–3% lead. Given Trump’s pro-crypto stance and his ambition to position America as a digital asset leader, his potential loss is perceived as a short- to medium-term setback for Bitcoin’s growth potential. This political shift has contributed to recent profit-taking, reinforcing Bitcoin’s ongoing price correction.”
Some analysts have called Bitcoin’s October price action a “Trump pump,” as its price appreciation was seemingly correlated with Trump’s rising odds of a presidential victory. Bitcoin’s price rose above $73,600 on Oct. 29, reaching its highest level since March 2024, just $200 shy of an all-time high.
Other analysts say that the current rally is simply a “Trump hedge” that lacks the fundamental macroeconomic conditions to lead to an all-time high after the election.
Magazine: Microsoft set to vote on Bitcoin, Peter Todd hiding, and more: Hodler’s Digest, Oct. 20–26