Bitcoin’s price reached a more than two-and-a-half-month high as its correlation with former United States President Donald Trump’s election-winning odds seemed to align.
The Bitcoin (BTC) price rose almost 10% over the past week, surpassing $68,200 for the first time since the end of July, according to Cointelegraph data.
The rally occurred shortly after Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris rose to a record high on the leading decentralized predictions market.
BTC/USD, 1-year chart. Source: Cointelegraph
Trump’s odds of winning the presidential elections stood at 60.2%, while Harris’ slid to 39.8% as of 11:41 am UTC on Oct. 16, according to Polymarket data.
Presidential election winner 2024. Source: Polymarket
Trump is generally seen as a more innovation-friendly candidate for the crypto space, while some investors are concerned that a potential Harris presidency could stifle blockchain innovation through more restrictive regulations.
Related: Trump leads Harris, but POTUS won’t matter for Bitcoin: BlackRock’s Fink
Peter Schiff calls Bitcoin “Trump pump”
While the Bitcoin price is influenced by various factors, economist Peter Schiff labeled the current rally a “meaningless, Trump-inspired” rally.
Schiff wrote in an Oct. 16 X post:
“While everyone is focused on the meaningless, Trump-inspired #Bitcoin pump, they’re missing the significance of #gold hitting another record high, above $2,680. Bitcoin may be up more, but it’s remained range-bound for seven months, as gold sets one record high after another.”
The Polymarket odds flipped in Trump’s favor on Oct. 4, marking a sharp reversal from September. By Oct. 12, Trump was leading by over 10 points, Cointelegraph reported.
The Bitcoin price bottomed above $60,300 on Oct. 10, days after Trump began to lead. The price has risen more than 13% since its monthly bottom on Oct. 10.
BTC/US dollar, one-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph
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Is Bitcoin sentiment correlated with Trump’s election odds?
Other industry watchers, including Thomas Fahrer, CEO of the crypto-focused reviews platform Apollo, also see an apparent correlation between Trump’s election odds and the Bitcoin price.
He wrote in an Oct. 16 X post:
“For every 1% rise in Trump’s probability of winning, Bitcoin price rises by $1K. “
Trump’s odds of winning the election seem to have a direct correlation with crypto investor sentiment.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index switched from “fear” to “neutral” on Oct. 12, when Trump’s lead on Polymarket increased to 10 points. The index has since risen to 73, signaling “greed” among investors.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index, one-month chart. Source: alternative.me
The index is a multifactorial measure of crypto market sentiment.
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