Expectations are high as the deadline for the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s decision on spot Ether exchange-traded funds (ETFs) draws near.
In a statement to Cointelegraph, Lucas Kiely, chief investment officer of digital wealth platform Yield App, mentioned that while this week’s abrupt 20% rise in the price of Ether (ETH) “took many by surprise,” investors should do their diligence and tread carefully moving forward.
“The SEC hasn’t even made its decision on the ETH spot ETFs yet — it could still go either way,” he said. “Even if it is approved, we’re likely to still see a pullback in the short term like we did with spot BTC ETFs.”
Jeff Owens, co-founder of layer-1 blockchain Haven1, agrees. “The unexpected move in Ether’s price demonstrates the high stakes surrounding the SEC’s potential approval of a spot ETH ETF,” he commented.
He also noted that an approval would likely initiate a broad-sector rally among altcoins, many of which are built on the Ethereum Virtual Machine. “We’ve already seen the impact on ETH and on the price of most altcoins, especially L2s like Arbitrum and Optimism, and DeFi stalwarts like Uniswap and Aave.”
Others gave even more optimistic forecasts. Geoffrey Kendrick, head of FX research at Standard Chartered Bank, said he expects anywhere between “$15 billion to $45 billion in flows” if the spot Ether ETFs are approved. Kendrick said:
“Indeed, I suspect the ETH ETF flows will be as or more impactful for the ETH price than ETF flows have been for the BTC price, given the relative lack of alternatives (no MSTR) for ETH positions pre-ETFs as well as the fact that once investors realize ETH is the ‘Big Tech’ of digital assets, they are likely to embrace it.”
Multiple U.S. Ether ETFs are in the pipeline. The final deadline for VanEck’s ETF filing is May 23, followed by the ARK Invest and 21Shares deadline on May 24. On May 20, Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, suddenly raised the probability of approval to 75% from 25%, citing political pressure directed toward regulators. Currently, betting markets show 61% odds of an ETF approval.
Nevertheless, there has been a significant increase in the volatility of major cryptocurrencies as the deadline looms. In his closing message, Owens warned of a “significant price correction” in the event of an SEC rejection and a “sell the news” event in the short term, even if they are approved.
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