With only 2 days left until the block reward halving Bitcoin (BTC) reached $10,000 for the second time in 24-hours. Data from Cointelegraph Markets and CoinMarketCap shows the largest digital asset by market capitalization is struggling to stay above the $10K handle.
Crypto market weekly price chart. Source: Coin360
A few hours ago the price lost momentum and the dropoff in purchasing volume broke the pattern of higher lows, causing Bitcoin to drop below the pennant seen on the hourly and 4-hour time frame.
BTC USDT 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
After Thursday's 11.81% rally, some traders expected the price to pull back to retest lower supports. But since April 29, traders have been steadily buying into each dip. The price also appears to be supported by a high volume VPVR node right at $9,925, and on April 8 the price bounced right off this node.
BTC USDT 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Despite this, there are signs that Bitcoin is in need of a pullback. On the shorter timeframes, purchasing volume has dropped significantly, the RSI has also come down from 77 to 63, and momentum on the MACD histogram is decreasing as the MACD pulls below the signal line as the price lingers between $9,750 and $9,900.
$9,300 BTC price incoming?
Since April 29, Bitcoin’s price has gained 30%. This also means that since the Black Thursday crash the price has rallied more than 160%. Thus, a pullback to retest lower support would be perfectly natural, and if not for the upcoming halving, traders who bought at $3,750 and $7,600 would already be itching to take profits.
In the event of a pullback below $9,800, the $9,400-$9,300 zone is where the price is expected to find support. The $9,400 level is aligned with the 20-MA and the long-term descending trendline.
Meanwhile, $9,300 is lined up with a high volume node on the VPVR. If $9,300 fails to provide support, traders will have their eyes focused on $9,000, which is close to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index. Source: Alternative.me
Despite the short-term possibility of a pullback to $9K, Bitcoin price action looks encouraging going into halving but the Crypto Fear & Greed Index shows investors the majority of traders are feeling quite bullish now.
While this is a strong pivot from where the index was two weeks ago, many traders view the sentiment metric as a counter-indicator, meaning when the bulk of investors feel beamish traders buy and the opposite when the majority of traders feel bullish.
Looking forward
BTC USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView
For the time being, risk-averse traders might consider waiting for a breakout above $10,600 as the daily chart shows that Bitcoin is ready to target $11,500 above this level.
More aggressive traders will watch the 1-hour chart to see if the price can push above the 20-MA and break above the pennant at $9,956.
Alternatively, traders could also wait to see if the price drops below $9,750 to revisit support in the $9,300-$9,400 range.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.