Bitcoin could see heightened price volatility following the United States presidential election, but some analysts view this as a positive development for its price trajectory.
As of 8:05 am UTC on election day, Bitcoin (BTC) remains subdued under $69,000.
The current low volatility in Bitcoin’s price indicates cautious market sentiment ahead of the election results, according to analysts at Bitfinex. However, an increase in volatility could contribute to Bitcoin’s price appreciation, Bitfinex analysts said. They noted:
“If the expected volatility fails to materialize, it may indicate a more substantial issue at play and a much deeper correction for BTC on the lower timeframes. In terms of the options market, apathy to price movements often reflects a more bearish sentiment than strong put buying.”
BTC/USD, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph
Bitcoin could benefit from a victory by former President Donald Trump, who is generally viewed as a more pro-crypto candidate.
A potential Trump win could pave the way for the next Bitcoin rally, although analysts at Sygnum said this could still happen if Vice President Kamala Harris wins the presidency. They wrote:
“[Post-election] the market will continue its upward trajectory in anticipation of the positive regulatory and legislative developments in the US once the new president takes office next January. This is likely to be the case irrespective of the election outcome; however, as market sentiment favors a Trump win, the rally may be more pronounced under this scenario.”
The Bitcoin price was just $200 shy of logging an all-time high ahead of the election when it rose above $73,600 on Oct. 29, its highest level since March.
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End of the Bitcoin “Trump trade” after elections?
Numerous investors have called Bitcoin’s October rally a “Trump pump,” as it was seemingly correlated with Trump’s rising election-winning odds.
However, the so-called “Trump trade” could come to an end for Bitcoin after the elections, Bitfinex analysts said:
“Our base case has remained that the ‘Trump Trade’ only pertains to Bitcoin as far as pre-election speculation is concerned.”
Other analysts say that Bitcoin is used as a proxy for a potential Trump victory. However, this current “Trump hedge” rally is lacking the fundamental macroeconomic conditions to result in an all-time high for BTC.
Harris vs. Trump 2024: What’s at Stake for the Crypto Market? Source: YouTube
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Altcoin market set for more downside in the short term
Regardless of the election results, the altcoin market — comprising cryptocurrencies other than Bitcoin and Ether (ETH) — is expected to face more downside.
Altcoins, specifically those outside the 10 largest tokens, have seen significant downside, which could extend after the election, according to Bitfinex analysts, who said:
“We believe that the altcoin market may experience further declines relative to Bitcoin in the mid-term, primarily due to the apathy of speculators. This general disinterest among investors suggests that upward momentum in altcoins is unlikely without a significant catalyst.”
While analysts are widely expecting an altcoin season, the potential returns could be weaker this cycle compared to previous historical altcoin rallies.
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