Optimism around the upcoming US elections, massive inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and several technical and onchain indicators suggest that Bitcoin price (BTC) is on the path to new all-time highs.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
A Trump win could send Bitcoin price to $100K
Bitcoin’s recent rally above $73,000 has been christened the “Trump trade” by some market commentators, as optimism surrounding a potential Trump presidency amounts among crypto enthusiasts.
Former President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump continues to extend his lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in betting markets.
Trump has been courting the crypto industry, presenting himself as a crypto-friendly candidate, attending the Bitcoin Conference in Nashville in July and promising never to sell any Bitcoin held by the United States government, among other pronouncements.
Conversely, Harris’ stance on crypto is still unclear at best, though some argue that she will take a softer stance on crypto than Joe Biden.
At the time of publication, Trump led with a 67% chance of winning the Nov. 5 presidential election versus Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who stood at 33%, according to data from Polymarket. However, opinion polls show a neck-to-neck race, making the election outcome too close to call.
Presidential Election Winner 2024. Source: Polymarket
A possible Trump victory is stirring optimism in the market. According to Teen Bitcoin millionaire Erik Finman, a Trump election win would turn the US into a pro-crypto environment, leading to a significant influx of investment in the crypto markets.
“His policies will ignite the crypto market, fueling massive growth across the board, Finman added.
“If Trump wins, I believe Bitcoin could hit $100,000 during his second term.”
IG Australia Pty’s market analyst Tony Sycamore believes Bitcoin’s trajectory reflects an optimistic outlook for Trump, highlighting the importance of sustaining its position above $70,000 to build confidence in the rally that could potentially surpass March’s peak of $73,794.
BTC price has rallied almost 15% in October, inspiring some confidence in the “Uptober” narrative.
Big spot Bitcoin ETF inflows return
Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to see massive capital inflow, with data from Farside Investors showing that a total of $23.3 billion have come into these investment products since they began trading on Jan. 11.
Bitcoin ETF flows (USD). Source: Farside Investors
While Grayscale’s GBTC continues to see outflows, these are more than offset by inflows into other ETFs, including BlackRock's IBIT, which recorded $642.9 million in inflows, clocking the biggest trading day in 6 months.
Source: Eric Blachunas
Demand for Bitcoin ETFs accelerated this week, recording a total of $2.1 billion in inflows over the last five days. Oct. 30 alone saw close more than $870 million poured into spot Bitcoin ETFs.
This is the “strongest ETF inflows” since March, said crypto data provider Ecoinometrics in an Oct. 29 post on X.
Ecoinometrics’ analysts added,
“If you are looking for a reason why Bitcoin could push higher, this is it.”
Spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Source: Ecoinometrics
Bitcoin short-term holder SOPR flips bullish
The recent rise above $70,000 saw more than 94% of all Bitcoin in supply turn into profit, but this has not led to intense profit-taking, according to data from CryptoQuant.
The market intelligence firm’s short-term holder (STH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric reveals that despite STHs returning to profit, they are not “overheating.”
SOPR is a metric used to show whether STHs have made a profit or loss compared to when they first held Bitcoin.
A value above 1 indicates a high percentage of coins that have made a profit on their short-term investment, and a value below 1 indicates a high percentage of coins in loss.
CruptoQuant says that this indicator is currently valued at 1.017%, suggesting that STHs are “realizing some profits and are not yet overheating.”
The firm explained that an SOPR value of 1.03% was “considered overheating” during the 7-month sideways price action witnessed since March, suggesting that there is more room for BTC “on the upside” before reaching this level.
“If the price of Bitcoin surpasses the point high and the short-term holder SOPR value continues to spike, we could see the start of a full-blown rally. “
Bitcoin STH SOPR. Source: CryptoQuant
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Record-high Bitcoin IO reaffirms uptrend
Data from CoinGlass shows that Bitcoin futures open interest (OI) hit an all-time high on Oct. 29 as BTC price broke past $73,000 for the first time since March.
BTC futures OI recorded their biggest one-day jump since June 3, rising to over 20,000 BTC, worth $2.5 billion at current prices, to reach almost 600,000 BTC, or $41 billion, as shown in the figure below.
Bitcoin futures OI across all exchanges. Source: CoinGlass
Open interest refers to the total number of outstanding derivative contracts that have not been settled.
High OI indicates that there is significant investor interest in Bitcoin. When open interest increases along with BTC prices, it suggests new money is coming into the market amid increasing demand, indicating a strengthening trend.
CryptoQuant contributor Julio Moreno noted in an Oct. 29 X post that if demand continues to grow, Bitcoin could target $84,000 next.
“Bitcoin is near a fresh ATH. From a valuation perspective, $84K would be the next target (the "upper” band).”
Bitcoin trader onchain realized price bands. Source: Julio Moreno
Bitcoin technicals show breakout underway
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that Bitcoin price surged within $200 of new all-time highs after the Wall Street open on Oct. 29, rising as much as 5.6% to $73,600 before pulling back slightly to the current levels.
Interestingly, Bitcoin’s price action has formed a rounded bottom chart pattern on the daily chart (see below). Buyers pushed the price above the neckline of the governing chart pattern at $71,700 during the Oct. 29 rally.
A daily candlestick close above this level would confirm a bullish breakout from the rounded bottom formation, ushering BTC into price discovery with the technical target set at $91,362, representing a 27% uptick from the current price.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
The daily relative strength indicator is positioned close to the overbought region at 67, reinforcing the bulls’ dominance in the market while still below the “overbought” threshold of 70.
Meanwhile, the exponential moving averages (EMAs) are also showing a “golden cross” on the daily chart. This happened in early January when the 50-day EMA (yellow line) crossed above the 200-day EMA (purple), followed by 60% gains for BTC/USD since.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.