Bitcoin (BTC) price has rebounded by over 25% from its Sept. 6 low of around $52,546, and onchain and technical indicators point to BTC continuing its recovery to new all-time highs.
Bitcoin open interest reaches all-time highs
Bitcoin’s open interest (OI) weighted perpetual futures funding rate has hit a multimonth high, indicating that the current bullish sentiment may continue in the short term.
According to data from CoinGlass, the current Bitcoin OI-weighted funding rate sits at 0.0136%, a level last seen on June 7, when Bitcoin briefly hit $71,950.
Positive funding rates generally indicate bullish market sentiments, but given the volatile nature of crypto markets, they should be interpreted with caution.
Bitcoin IO-weighted funding rate. Source: CoinGlass
Additional data from market intelligence firm CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin open interest (OI) across all exchanges hit an all-time high of $19.7 billion on Oct. 15, signaling more price moves ahead as more capital flows into the market.
“This upward trend in the derivatives market indicates a growing influx of liquidity and increased attention in the cryptocurrency space,” declared CryptoQuant analysts in their latest post on X.
“The rise in funding rates further points to a bullish sentiment among traders.”
Bitcoin IO across all exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
While high OI confirms increased investor interest, it cannot be considered intrinsically bullish because futures longs (buyers) and sellers (shorts) are matched at all times. Increasing open interest creates volatility rather than directional bias.
Bitcoin supply on exchanges downtrend continues
Bitcoin’s potential rally to new record highs is evidenced by onchain data tracking BTC supply on exchanges, which has been reducing to reach a near-five-year low, according to data from CryptoQuant.
As of Oct. 15, centralized crypto exchanges held about $2.68 million BTC, a 20% drop from an all-time high of $3.37 million BTC reached in July 2021. This is occurring alongside a 55% year-to-date growth in Bitcoin’s price.
Bitcoin reserves on exchanges. Source: CryptoQuant
Declining supply on exchanges suggests that traders prefer holding BTC over selling them for fiat or other digital assets. This also raises Bitcoin’s potential to continue its 2024 bull run.
Increasing demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs
Continued demand for BTC would come from institutional investors as they continue pouring capital into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
According to data from SoSoValue Investors, US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded positive flows in four out of the last seven trading days, suggesting continued institutional interest in these investment products.
On Oct. 14, these investment products saw the highest-ever net inflows since June 4, amassing more than $555.8 million in inflows.
Total spot Bitcoin ETF net flow. Source: SOSOValue
It’s a “monster day for spot BTC ETFs,” declared ETF Store President Nate Geraci in an X post, adding that they approached $20 billion in net inflows over the past 10 months, blowing “away every pre-launch demand estimate.”
“It’s advisers and institutional investors continuing to slowly adopt.”
Bitcoin RSI hints at a $233,000 BTC price
Bitcoin price has been consolidating below its 2021 all-time high of $69,000 over the past four months, but the monthly RSI points to a potential rally over the coming weeks.
In an Oct. 14 Bitcoin analysis on the X social media platform, independent analyst Bitcoindata21 applied standard deviation to monthly RSI and suggested that BTC’s price may top approximately $233,000 at the peak of the current bull run.
The analyst referred to historical highs in monthly RSI readings, which correspond to cycle tops for Bitcoin price.
“So the question is whether you think 88-90 monthly RSI is probable? If you do, then why is $250k not achievable?”
BTC/USD weekly chart. Source: Bitcoindata21
The analyst says Bitcoin price can reach these six-figure levels as early as the first quarter of 2025.
Related: Metaplanet shares jump 16% after buying 107 Bitcoin
Bitcoin sits on strong 200-day SMA support
On Oct. 14, Bitcoin price rose above a key level embraced by the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), currently at $63,335, fueling a marketwide recovery.
Several attempts have been made to reclaim this level in the recent past, but each has failed to spark a broader price trend.
Note that the last three times the BTC price broke above the 200-day SMA, it experienced a parabolic move.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading above this crucial level, which serves as immediate support.
BTC/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
Data from IntoTheBlock shows that the 200-day SMA at $63,336 is within the $61,770 to $63,728 demand zone, where approximately 1.1 million BTC were previously bought by 2.5 million addresses.
IOMAP chart. Source: IntoTheBlock
The chart above also suggests that Bitcoin sits on relatively strong support compared to the resistance it faces in its recovery path, suggesting that the path with the least resistance is upward.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.