As of March 8, XRP (XRP) faces mounting technical and fundamental pressures that suggest a possible 20% price decline in the near future. Drawing from recent market analyses and historical patterns, investors should watch three key signals.
XRP price chart hints at 20% drop ahead
XRP/USD is currently forming a symmetrical triangle on its weekly chart, a pattern reflecting a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers.
XRP/USD weekly price chart. Source: TradingView
Contrary to popular belief, symmetrical triangles are not always bullish continuation patterns. They indicate a bias conflict, often resolving with a breakout in either direction based on prevailing momentum.
Historically, crypto markets have seen such setups lead to declines rather than bull runs. For example, Ethereum’s 2018 triangle breakdown resulted in an 80% drop.
ETH/USD weekly price chart feat. symmetrical triangle breakdown from 2018. Source: TradingView
When it happens, the price typically rises or falls toward the level that is at a length equal to the triangle’s maximum height. Applying this technical rule on XRP brings its downside target to around $1.46, which aligns with the 50-week exponential moving average.
Trump embraces Bitcoin, not XRP
XRP’s price slumped following the White House’s inaugural Crypto Summit on March 7, as optimism about its potential inclusion in a US strategic crypto reserve quickly faded.
Despite initial excitement, President Donald Trump’s team clarified that the mentioned cryptocurrencies, Ethereum, Solana, Cardano, and XRP, were illustrative examples, not official selections.
@DavidSacks, why are you walking back XRP's mention in Trump's crypto reserve plan like it was an afterthought?
— Jason Higgins 🇺🇸 (@JasonTrading589) March 7, 2025
Almost like you were prompted to do so.
The jig is up everyone knows what XRP is and why it's still being suppressed while every other SEC lawsuit gets dropped. Why… pic.twitter.com/96x6ZvBlIE
Moreover, there’s no evidence the US government holds XRP, and Trump’s broader stockpile strategy, focusing on altcoins, excludes new purchases. This revelation has already triggered a 10% decline in the XRP market.
Related: US crypto reserve could boost Bitcoin market cap by $460B — Research
On the other hand, Bitcoin is gaining clear favors from the Trump administration, with the US also holding approximately $17.7 billion in BTC.
Meanwhile, the XRP/BTC pair is consolidating within a historical distribution zone, though it remains above the 200-2W EMA (the blue wave) at around 2,459 satoshis.
XRP/BTC two-week price chart. Source: TradingView
A break below the 200-2W EMA could push XRP/BTC toward the 50-2W EMA (the red wave) at around 1,700 satoshis, triggering a correlated decline in XRP/USD and thus amplifying the risk of a 20% drop.
XRP volume explosion mirrors 2021 bear market
XRP’s trading volumes recently surged to record levels, with analyst Martunn warning that XRP is in a distribution phase, where large holders offload positions to retail buyers after a major rally.
XRP volume bubbles. Source: CryptoQuant
This volume surge follows XRP’s 600% rise from November 2024 to January 2025, a classic setup for distribution.
In 2021, a similar volume explosion preceded a prolonged downtrend, as selling pressure eventually outweighed demand. If history repeats, XRP could face another major correction, aligning with the symmetrical triangle breakdown explained above.
The decline in XRP whale holdings further reflects distribution. The whale balance has dropped from 94.21 billion to 90.21 billion XRP in a year while erasing the increase from the post-US election “Trump pump.“
Whales are large investors or entities holding significant amounts, which in this case are addressed with balances of over 1 million XRP.
XRP addresses with over a million tokens. Source: Messari
When whales offload, it often signals a lack of confidence in the asset’s near-term performance, as these players typically have access to better market insights or strategic plans.
Their selling can create a ripple effect, reducing liquidity and increasing selling pressure as smaller investors follow suit.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.