Bitcoin’s (BTC) price continues to face bearish pressure as the total cryptocurrency market cap slides under $2 trillion. The crypto fear and greed index also shows “extreme fear” in the market for the first time since the first week of August.
Let’s examine the BTC price levels below $55,000, which should provide support and potential bounce areas.
Bitcoin swing high to $57.4K on the 1-hour chart
Bitcoin registered a monthly low of $55,250 on Sept. 6, but on the positive side, it tested an untouched demand zone from August. Forming a lower low on the 1-hour chart could allow BTC to undergo an immediate swing high toward $57,500.
BTC/USDT on the 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Moreover, there is also a bullish divergence between the price and the relative strength index (RSI), which was also observed on the 4-hour chart on Sept. 4.
Each swing low over on the hourly chart has witnessed an average of ~4% recovery in September on the 1-hour chart.
A 4% recovery is roughly around $57.5K-$58K right now.
At $57.5K, upside liquidation leverage positions are also present. After taking out downside liquidity over the past few hours, the price can move back within a lower high price range, where day traders could treat the liquidity pool as a potential short opportunity.
Bitcoin 24-hour liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass
Short-term holders realized price is at $52K
A daily close below $55,000 will open the possibility for further downside for BTC price over the next few days. Losing the demand zone at $55,000 opens a potential retest for Bitcoin around $52,100.
Axel Adler Jr., a Bitcoin researcher, highlights that this is the “next closest target” since it is the current realized price of short-term holders.
Additionally, the range between $50,500 and $53,000 is marked by large whale accumulations from February 2024.
BTC/USDT on the 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Liquidity sweep at $49K?
If BTC cannot hold $52,000, $49,000 should be the final support price, and its long-term bullish structure will face serious bearish pressure.
Similar to the last bull run in 2021, BTC will retest the 50-weekly EMA if it drops down to $49,000 in the coming weeks. Bitcoin hasn’t closed a weekly candle below the 50-weekly EMA since October 2023.
BTC/USDT on the weekly chart. Source: TradingView
In 2021, Bitcoin maintained a weekly position above the 50-weekly EMA, and the indicator provided support before the second leg of the rally. The RSI also reset around the 50 level, and a similar reset is taking place now.
Related: Arthur Hayes sees sub-$50K BTC price as Bitcoin risks 'stark' trend shift
If the price action repeats, Bitcoin should avoid consolidation under $50,000 for a prolonged period, as it will lead to a weekly close under the key EMA level.
Ultimately, another sweep at the $49,000 H2 2024 bottom could occur before the bull cycle can continue.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.