A major bitcoin technical indicator has turned bearish for the first time this year sending mixed messages to the markets. Some analysts maintain we are still in a bull market while others are predicting more pain before any gain.
Bitcoin Weekly MACD Death Cross
In the trading world, a MACD is not a popular form of fast food, but a technical indicator that measures moving average convergence/divergence. Following the past two months of range-bound trading, the two weekly indicators have crossed which indicates a bearish market.
Popular chart analyst, Murad Mahmudov, remains bullish despite this technical indicator leaning in the opposite direction.
“People out here be talking about the Weekly MACD ‘bear cross’ like its some kind of a doom verdict. Ironically it marked the local bottom every single time during the last bull cycle. I repeat for the last time. This is a BULL market.”
People out here be talking about the Weekly MACD 'bear cross' like its some kind of a doom verdict.
Ironically it marked the local bottom every single time during the last bull cycle.
I repeat for the last time. This is a BULL market. pic.twitter.com/Uk015uk17x
— Murad Mahmudov
(@MustStopMurad) August 25, 2019
The former Goldman Sachs analyst used a chart to illustrate the bullish momentum that followed previous MACD crosses. He added that weeks, if not months, of ‘chopsolidation’, are likely providing it marked local bottoms.
Others noted that even a 50% drop from here, which would send bitcoin plunging back to $5k, would still put it in a bull market, trading over 50% higher than its mid-December low. Trader ‘BigChonis’ observed the first negative histogram on the weekly time frame since February.
$BTC – starts the week in the first MACD Bear cross since Nov 2018 and first negative histogram since Feb … pic.twitter.com/dKmOPP8vqk
— Chonis Trading-
(@BigChonis) August 26, 2019
BTC Pain or Gain First?
While the long term outlook appears to be bullish there could be more pain ahead in the short term. Crypto trader and analyst ‘Credible Crypto’ has eyed a return below $9k before any further major upsides occur.
“I believe we will see the last leg down we have been waiting for within 1 week. Expecting a move into GREEN that will be bought up almost instantly, leaving a nice long downside wick on the weekly. Within 2 weeks, we will be well on our way to 14k+.”
I believe we will see the last leg down we have been waiting for within 1 week. Expecting a move into GREEN that will be bought up almost instantly, leaving a nice long downside wick on the weekly. Within 2 weeks, we will be well on our way to 14k+. Keeping it simple. $BTC pic.twitter.com/hC0jlXphvg
— Credible Crypto (@CredibleCrypto) August 26, 2019
As we have seen in the five or six times bitcoin has dropped into four figures, it has not remained there for very long. There is clearly a high concentration of buyers lurking at this level and there will be more waiting with fingers on triggers if BTC ever falls into the $8k price range.
This could be the catalyst to drive the next wave of the bull market which, nearly all of the analysts agree, has already initiated.
Will Bitcoin price fall back to $8000 before its next run-up? Add your thoughts below.
Images via Bitcoinist Image Library, Twitter: @MustStopMurad, @BigChonis, @CredibleCrypto