Spot Ethereum ETFs now have a straight shot for approval — Analysts

Spot Ethereum ETFs have a 70% approval odds by May, says Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.
Brayden Lindrea
Posted by Brayden Lindrea January 10, 2024 2 Mins Read
Spot Ethereum ETFs have a 70% approval odds by May, says Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas.

With 11 spot Bitcoin (BTC) exchange-traded funds approved on Jan. 10, spot Ether (ETH) ETFs should have a clear path to approval in 2024 — and one analyst is even tipping a 70% chance of approval by May.

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas previously told Cointelegraph he couldn’t see a scenario where spot Bitcoin ETFs are approved but spot Ether ETFs aren’t.

“The Ether spot is tied to the hip of Bitcoin spot for sure. It’s gonna go wherever it goes. It’s basically like on a 15-foot rope following it.”

Balchunas also noted he had heard “on the back channels” that spot Ether ETFs “will be fine.”

Meanwhile, digital asset lawyer Joe Carlasare has also tipped for spot Ether ETFs to be approved this year but believes “it will take a bit longer than folks expect.”

“Ethereum spot ETFs will be approved [but] the SEC will try to carefully craft a precedent that permits them to retain some discretion in determining which digital asset ETFs will be permitted to come to market.”

“Put another way, I think the SEC is trying to provide guidance that would deter applicants from filing ETFs for every major token,” Carlasare added.

Balchunas said he estimates a 70% chance that spot ETH ETFs will be approved by May — which is the month the SEC must make a final decision for several applications — though he said the timing for launch was less clear.

The price of Ether spiked around 3% after the approvals, reaching over $2500 — the first time since May 2022. Ether is trading at $2533 at the time of publication, up 7% in the past 24 hours.

The price of Ether over 24 hours. Source: CoinMarketCap

Carlasare believes that spot ETH ETFs won’t start trading until the third quarter of 2024, while one of the spot Ether ETF applicants, Hashdex, recently tipped the Ether products to begin trading as early as the second quarter.

Prior to the SEC’s spot Bitcoin approval, Valkyrie Funds’ chief investment officer Steven McClurg said he wouldn’t be surprised if spot Ether and XRP (XRP) ETFs come to market after Bitcoin.

Related: SEC solicits comments on Fidelity’s spot Ether ETF application

Fellow Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart is also confident the SEC will give the green light to spot Ether ETFs because the SEC implicitly accepted Ether as a commodity when it approved Ether futures ETFs in September.

“By approving those Ethereum futures ETFs, they’re implicitly accepting those Ethereum futures as commodities futures," Seyffart said during CryptoQuant’s private webinar on Jan. 4.

BlackRock, VanEck, ARK 21Shares, Fidelity and Invesco Galaxy, Grayscale and Hashdex are among the spot Ether ETF applicants vying for SEC approval.

The SEC must decide on VanEck’s application by May 23, ARK 21Shares by May 24, Hashdex by May 30, Grayscale by June 18 and Invesco by July 5.

Fidelity and BlackRock’s applications must be decided by Aug. 3 and Aug. 7.

Magazine: Magazine: BlackRock meets with SEC over ETF, Binance’s new era begins and SBF loses release bid: Hodler’s Digest, Nov. 19–25

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