Bitcoin starts the last week of September with a trip to one-month highs as the weekly close sets up a bullish market landscape.
- Bitcoin (BTC) spiked to $64,700 after the weekly close, with analysis placing emphasis on $65,000 as the next resistance hurdle to beat.
- Weekly relative strength index (RSI) signals call for further upside — arguably a fool-proof chart setup for Bitcoin bull runs.
- Markets are digesting the United States Federal Reserve’s 0.5% interest rate cut, and the mood among risk assets is buoyant.
- Bitcoin is fast approaching the bull market stage that traditionally sees the most rampant upside.
- Sentiment is measured, with no clear signs of euphoria evident in the Crypto Fear & Greed Index.
All eyes on the $65,000 prize
A volatile weekly close saw Bitcoin bulls win out as a $4,400 weekly candle preceded new monthly highs.
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView captured a trip to $64,700 for BTC/USD next before the pair retraced to consolidate around the weekly close level.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
Analyzing order book composition on the largest global exchange, Binance, popular trader Skew was optimistic, having earlier called for more evidence of a BTC price trend change.
“Still seeing a good theme here with limit bids moving higher with price which has supported the trend thus far,” he wrote in one of the day’s X posts.
“Currently there’s key bid liquidity around $62K which is important for structural reasons. A bit lower around $59K there's deeper bid liquidity which is a definite line in the sand for current uptrend.”
Skew added that $65,000 was the main resistance hurdle to clear, in line with other market perspectives from recent days.
“Majority of the liquidity is still higher with ample ask liquidity starting around $65K,” he summarized.
The latest data from monitoring resource CoinGlass shows the extent of ask liquidity across exchanges, along with support massing at $63,000, so far keeping price pinned.
BTC/USD liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass
Eyeing a potential breakout, however, fellow popular trader Jelle drew comparisons to September 2023, just after BTC/USD put in a long-term low.
“Higher lows - grinding up into the key level,” he commented alongside a corresponding chart.
“Push beyond these highs, and we'll be at new all-time highs in the blink of an eye.”
BTC/USDT perpetual swaps 1-day chart. Source: Jelle
Bitcoin RSI teases “most reliable” bull signal
Drilling down to potential mid-term BTC price signals, one metric stands out this week: the RSI.
As Cointelegraph reported, weekly timeframes paint an encouraging picture for BTC/USD, where RSI has spent months carving out a downtrend.
Now, the tables are turning, and a breakout appears to be in progress. Weekly RSI is sustaining above the key midpoint of 50, providing a hint of price strength to come.
“The Weekly RSI breakout signals an explosive move by the end of the year for BTC,” popular trader, investor and analyst Titan of Crypto told X followers this weekend.
Titan of Crypto gave $85,000 as an “intermediate” BTC price target on the back of the RSI data.
Fellow commentator Kevin Svenson went further, suggesting that the metric would fuel bullish moves into 2025.
“The Weekly RSI Breakout is the most reliable macro bullish signal throughout Bitcoin history in my opinion,” a recent X post argued.
BTC/USD 1-week chart with RSI data. Source: Kevin Svenson
Rate hike fever keeps the risk-asset mood high
Risk assets continue to celebrate after last week’s bumper interest rate cut, and Bitcoin is no exception.
The Fed surprised by reducing benchmark rates by 0.5%, but officials are matching markets’ expectations of further cuts before the end of 2024.
BTC/USD is up by around 6% since the decision was announced on Sept. 18, with the Fed’s next one due on Nov. 7. Stocks have seen even stronger progress, the S&P 500 setting new all-time highs.
“A Fed that’s cutting interest rates should be stimulative for the economy and help boost corporate earnings,” trading firm Mosaic Asset wrote in the latest edition of its regular newsletter, The Market Mosaic, on Sept. 22.
“Earnings for the S&P 500 have recovered from the drawdown in 2022 following rate hikes, with forward estimates picking up into the end of 2025.”
Mosaic added that rates were headed lower “despite financial conditions already being loose.”
“Financial conditions reflects the availability and cost of credit. When credit is cheap and plentiful, that tends to be a tailwind for economic activity (and hence earnings),” it summarized.
As of Sept. 23, the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows roughly equal bets of another 0.5% cut versus a smaller 0.25% move in November.
Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group
The coming week, meanwhile, sees the Fed’s “preferred” inflation gauge in the form of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index print for August.
Jobless claims and second-quarter gross domestic product data the day prior, on Sept. 26, add another element of volatility for crypto and risk assets.
“Another huge week of economic data ahead,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter concluded on X.
Bitcoin bull market approaches “greatest gains”
When it comes to Bitcoin bull markets, it is arguably all a question of timing.
Research sees plenty of historical patterns in BTC price behavior, among which are the most vertical periods in bull markets, which precede new all-time highs.
For K33 Research, such a period is now due, nearly 700 days since the pit of the 2022 bear market.
“672 days have passed since the Nov 2022 bottom,” it calculated in an X post on Sept. 22.
“The past two bull market cycles from trough to peak lasted for +1050 days, with the final 365 days seeing the greatest gains. The current 672-day trough-to-peak performance sits right in the middle of past cycles. Will it repeat?”
Bitcoin bull market comparison. Source: K33 Research
An accompanying chart compared the current cycle to two previous ones, lending a reassuring element to BTC price conditions that have caught many by surprise in 2024.
March’s all-time high, for instance, was not expected so soon, while the extent of the subsequent consolidation period has also proven troublesome for traders and miners alike.
As Cointelegraph reported, analysis has long called for an upside breakout to hit in September — something that would likewise keep BTC/USD in line with standard behavior after block subsidy halving events.
”FOMO” warning for crypto sentiment
Crypto market sentiment remains restrained despite BTC price action being at its highest levels in a month.
Related: Bitcoin price strength extends to AVAX, SUI, TAO and AAVE — Are altcoins back?
The latest data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index gives Sept. 23 a score of 50/100, firmly in “neutral” territory.
That is, in fact, four points lower than before the weekend, setting up a divergence with price that may allow the rally to dodge claims that it is unsustainable.
Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me
Analyzing social media activity, however, research firm Santiment had a word of caution.
“Understandably, the crowd has reason to be optimistic about Bitcoin & others continuing to rise after the Fed’s first rate cuts in 4.5 years,” it summarized on X on Sept. 21.
“But take more caution than usual while we see social media creating such a highly unanimous optimistic (vs. pessimistic) narrative. Cryptocurrency markets nearly always move the opposite direction of the mainstream crowd's expectations.”
An accompanying chart showed social media posts heavily skewed toward bullish content, resulting in a warning of “FOMO” setting in.
Bitcoin sentiment data. Source: Santiment
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.