Users on the Kalshi prediction market now place Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht’s odds of being pardoned by President-elect Donald Trump in the first 100 days of assuming office at 79%.
The incoming president promised to free Ulbricht in a speech to the Libertarian Party’s National Convention on May 25. President-elect Trump told the audience:
“If you vote for me, on day one, I will commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht to a sentence of time served. He has already served 11 years. We are going to get him home.”
Trump reiterated the promise at the 2024 Bitcoin conference in July 2024. Releasing Ulbricht from prison has been a major advocacy issue for the crypto community — particularly for Bitcoiners, who share the libertarian ethos.
Ulbricht’s odds of receiving a pardon from President Trump. Source: Kalshi
Related: Polymarket users bet Biden more likely to pardon SBF than Ross Ulbricht
The arrest and trial of Ross Ulbricht
Ulbricht founded the Silk Road — a dark web marketplace for contraband goods and services — in 2011 under the alias “Dread Pirate Roberts.”
Following a two-year investigation into the online black market, US law enforcement officials arrested Ulbricht in October 2013, shuttering the marketplace and seizing roughly 174,000 Bitcoin.
Law enforcement officials also seized the Silk Road founder’s electronic devices, including a laptop and external hard drives, which were later used as evidence in his trial.
US authorities charged the Silk Road founder with aiding and abetting the distribution of drugs, running a criminal enterprise, a computer hacking conspiracy, identity fraud, and a money laundering conspiracy.
In February 2014, Ulbricht appeared before a Manhattan court and pleaded not guilty on all charges. The following year, the Silk Road founder was found guilty on all charges.
On May 29, 2015, the Silk Road founder was sentenced to life in prison after asking for leniency from Judge Katherine Forrest of Manhattan’s Southern District of New York.
The Silk Road founder recently wrote that he trusted President-elect Trump to honor his promise of commuting the life sentence.
“After 11-plus years in darkness, I can finally see the light of freedom at the end of the tunnel. Thank you so much, Donald Trump,” Ulbricht wrote on Nov. 12.
Magazine: $3.4B of Bitcoin in a popcorn tin: The Silk Road hacker’s story