Bitcoin’s (BTC) strong weekly return of 9.84% exhibited a clear bullish breakout above the descending trendline pattern, which has been active since March 2024.
In light of that, Sina, the co-founder of 21st Capital, indicated that the current price of Bitcoin falls between the lowest consolidation price range for 2025, according to its quantile model.
Bitcoin quantile model highlights three price ranges for BTC
Sina presented a study that classified Bitcoin’s “probability space” utilizing a quantile regression model and outlined three specific zones for Bitcoin in 2025.
The analyst mentioned that each zone represented a different price range and market sentiment, termed as cold, warm and hot.
Bitcoin quantile model. Source: Sina
The “cold” zone (below 33% percentile) for 2025 ranges between $55,000 and $85,000, which includes BTC’s current price. This particular wavelength has been outlined as the lowest probable value for BTC, with seasoned investors expected to build positions while keeping long-term targets of above $100,000 in mind.
The “warm” zone (33% to 66% percentile) ranges between $85,000 and $136,000. Sina mentioned that a majority of retail will start paying attention during this valuation spectrum as BTC forms new all-time highs and goes under price discovery. Investors may gradually build positions in this range with over-exposure.
The “hot” zone (between 66% to 99% percentile) indicates the peak BTC range between $136,000 and $285,000 by the end of 2025, where BTC is expected to consolidate a third of the upcoming year. With respect to each zone, Sina said:
“The 33% quantile ranges coincide perfectly with bitcoin phase transitions. Bitcoin just likes to spend 1/3 of its time in each zone and then transition to the other zone like clockwork. Most of the bear market is (33%, and bull market euphoria begins at) 66%.”
Sina added that prices would move with the most volatility in the hot zone where profit-taking and overleveraged positions will lead to fast market reversals.
Related: 3 signs Bitcoin’s 'parabolic phase' with a $250K target is about to begin
Bitcoin price needs support at $68,500
IntoTheBlock, an onchain analytics platform, indicated the historical importance of Bitcoin’s $68,500 price level. BTC peaked between $68,000 and $69,000 in 2021, marking the all-time highs in previous bull markets. Current data highlights a high concentration of activity near previous all-time high levels where over 320,000 active addresses have interacted with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin active addresses by profitability. Source: IntoTheBlock
Out of 320,000 active addresses, more than 68% have interacted with BTC at an average price of $68,572. Therefore, Bitcoin could potentially form support around this region on the higher-time-frame level based on the investor’s holder’s interest.
However, at the moment, Bitcoin has demonstrated a daily correction of 3%, dropping down to $67,000 from a high of $69,555.
Bitcoin 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView
On the four-hour chart, BTC is receiving support from the 50-day EMA level, which coincides with the resistance level of $67,000. While an immediate move above $68,500 will continue BTC’s bullish momentum, a sideways consolidation near its current price may lead to a deeper correction this week.
Related: Lowest search interest since 2020 — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.