Price analysis 9/16: SPX, DXY, BTC, ETH, BNB, SOL, XRP, DOGE, TON, ADA 

Bitcoin’s (BTC) failure to maintain above the psychologically crucial $60,000 level shows that buying dries up at higher levels. The nervousness could be due to the uncertainty regarding the extent of the rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Sept. 18 and the subsequent reaction by the markets.

Some analysts believe the rate cuts will be bullish for the crypto markets. Trading firm QCP Capital told its Telegram channel subscribers to prepare for complementary scenarios for risk assets and cryptocurrencies. 

“Despite some short-term uncertainty and potential drawdowns, we still favor locking in yields ahead of the rates cut and positioning for bullish scenarios,” the firm said.

However, not everyone is positive about the rate cut. A few believe that an aggressive rate cut signals deeper concerns in the economy.

“Historically, sharp cuts have preceded recessions. Why? It shows the government is scared and scrambling to reverse an overreach,” financial analyst and investor Jacob King, CEO of crypto newsletter WhaleWire, told his X followers.

Could Bitcoin continue lower and retest the $55,724 support? Will that increase selling in select altcoins? Let’s analyze the charts to find out.

S&P 500 Index price analysis

The S&P 500 Index recovered strongly last week and is near the all-time high of 5,670, indicating sustained buying by the bulls.

The bears will have to guard the overhead resistance with all their might because if they fail in their endeavor, the index could resume the uptrend and rally toward the next target objective of 6,000.

On the downside, the first sign of weakness will be a break and close below the moving averages. Selling could pick up further if the index breaks and sustains below 5,400. That could signal a range formation between 5,100 and 5,670.

US Dollar Index price analysis

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has been in a downtrend for several days. Generally, in a downtrend, traders sell the rallies to the 20-day exponential moving average (101.54), and that is what happened on Sept. 12.

The bears are trying to strengthen their position by pulling the price below the 100.50 support. If they manage to do that, the index could slide to 99.57, which is likely to attract strong buying by the bulls.

Buyers will have to drive and maintain the price above the overhead resistance of 102 to suggest that the downtrend may be ending. The index could attempt a rally to 103.50 and then to 105.

Bitcoin price analysis

Bitcoin has pulled back below the 20-day EMA ($58,338) on Sept. 16, indicating that the bears are applying pressure.

If the price turns up from the current levels, the bulls will make one more attempt to drive the BTC/USDT pair above $61,200. If they succeed, the pair could start a rally to $65,000. A break and close above $65,000 will negate the lower highs formation on the pair, which is a positive sign.

Conversely, a close below the 20-day EMA could tug the price to the vital support zone between $55,724 and $52,550.

Ether price analysis

Ether (ETH) turned down from the 20-day EMA ($2,414) on Sept. 15 and dropped to the solid support near $2,300.

The down sloping 20-day EMA and the relative strength index (RSI) in the negative zone indicate that the bears have an edge. If the price continues lower and closes below $2,300, the slide could extend to $2,111. A break and close below this support could signal the resumption of the downtrend.

The first sign of strength will be a rally above the moving averages. The ETH/USDT pair could then climb to the breakdown level of $2,850. Buyers will have to overcome this resistance to suggest a trend change.

BNB price analysis

BNB (BNB) has been trading between $460 and $635 for several months, indicating buying near the support and selling close to the resistance. 

The bears are trying to pull the price below the moving averages. If they can pull it off, the BNB/USDT pair could slump toward $460. 

On the contrary, if the price turns up from the moving averages, it will suggest that the short-term sentiment has turned positive. The pair could rise to $600 and then to $635. Sellers are expected to fiercely defend the zone between $600 and $635, but if the bulls prevail, the pair may run up to $722.

Solana price analysis

Solana (SOL) rose above the 20-day EMA ($135) on Sept. 13, but the bulls could not maintain the higher levels.

The price turned down and slipped below the 20-day EMA on Sept. 15. The bears will try to sink the price to the critical support of $116, where the buyers are likely to step in and arrest the decline.

This negative view will be invalidated in the near term if the SOL/USDT pair turns up and breaks above the 50-day simple moving average ($143). That could start a recovery to the overhead resistance of $164, which may be a formidable barrier for the bulls to cross.

XRP price analysis

XRP (XRP) has been swinging inside a large range between $0.41 and $0.64 for several weeks.

Both moving averages have flattened out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating a balance between supply and demand. The bulls will have to push the price above the $0.64 resistance to take charge. 

Alternatively, if the price continues lower and breaks below the uptrend line, it will suggest that the short-term advantage has tilted in favor of the bears. That could sink the XRP/USDT pair to $0.50 and eventually to $0.46.

Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today

Dogecoin price analysis

Buyers are finding it difficult to push Dogecoin (DOGE) above the downtrend line of the falling wedge pattern.

If the price maintains below the 20-day EMA ($0.10), it will suggest that the bulls have given up. The DOGE/USDT pair could then sink to $0.09. This is an important level for the bulls to protect because a break below it will tilt the advantage in favor of the bears. The pair could then plunge to $0.08.

Instead, if the price turns up and breaks above the downtrend line, it will signal a potential trend change. The pair may rally to $0.14 and thereafter to $0.18.

Toncoin price analysis

Toncoin (TON) turned down from the 50-day SMA ($5.87) on Sept. 14, indicating that the bears are active at higher levels.

The bulls will have to defend the 20-day EMA ($5.44) if they want to start a sustained recovery. If the price rebounds off the 20-day EMA and breaks above the 50-day SMA, it will suggest that the buyers have the upper hand. The TON/USDT pair could climb to $7, where the rally may hit a hurdle.

Contrarily, if the 20-day EMA breaks down, the pair is likely to retest the crucial support near $4.72. A break and close below $4.44 could start a new downtrend toward $3.50.

Cardano price analysis

Cardano (ADA) slipped back below the moving averages on Sept. 15, indicating that the bears have kept up the pressure.

The ADA/USDT pair is forming a bearish descending triangle pattern, which will complete on a break and close below the crucial support at $0.31. That could start a downward move toward the next major support at $0.24.

The bulls will have to push and maintain the price above the downtrend line to invalidate the bearish setup. The pair could rally to $0.40 and subsequently to $0.46, where the bears may mount a strong defense.

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.