Donald Trump maintains a formative lead over Kamala Harris on the Polymarket prediction market, but no matter who wins the election, payouts could be delayed until Jan. 20, 2025, unless the Associated Press, Fox and NBC all agree on a clear winner.
Under the rules of the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” contest on Polymarket, either candidate must win the election for payouts to occur. However, when it comes to US presidential elections, it can take days, weeks or even months to determine the final outcome.
According to a disclaimer on the contest’s landing page, Polymarket won’t declare a winner before Inauguration Day unless the media reaches a consensus.
The Polymarket rules governing payouts for the 2024 US presidential election prediction market. Source: Polymarket
“This Presidential market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox, and NBC all call the election for the same candidate. In the unlikely event that doesn’t happen, the market will remain open until inauguration and resolve to whoever gets inaugurated.”
Polymarket also references a separate prediction market slated to resolve when a president is inaugurated. However, the “Presidential Election Winners 2024” market referenced above could close as early as Nov. 6 after the final votes are tallied if AP, Fox and NBC report in agreement.
US elections
Historically, the timing between polls officially closing and the winner of the US presidential election being announced has varied.
At its fastest, a winner could be declared within hours of the polls closing. In the nation’s early days, though, it was common for citizens to wait weeks to finally find out who would take the nation’s highest office.
In the modern era, the past few elections have been settled — at least to the news media’s satisfaction — within a matter of days. But the 2000 US presidential race between George W. Bush and Al Gore was a somewhat recent anomaly. Uncertainty over its outcome lasted for 35 days until intervention from the US Supreme Court ultimately contributed to Gore’s concession.
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Amid the current political climate, analysts appear to be expecting the unexpected as are electoral officers in each state. In the event of a deadlock, for example, a slew of lawsuits, recounts and state-based post-election protocol measures would likely kick in across the US. It’s possible the results could be delayed even further if, somehow, Trump and Harris deadlock in an electoral votes tie.
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There’s certainly a precedent. In what might be the most famous tie in US political history, Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr both received 72 electoral votes in the country’s third presidential election.
The election took place in October of 1800, but the final victor wasn’t declared until late February 1801, when Congress finally broke the tie.
Due to US laws at the time, Burr was made Jefferson’s vice president. Those laws have since been updated.
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