American computer scientist Nick Szabo overtook cryptographer Len Sassaman as the frontrunner on Polymarket to be identified as Satoshi Nakamoto in HBO’s upcoming documentary that claims to reveal Bitcon’s creator.
Polymarket bettors have put 27.9% odds on Szabo, inventor of the failed crypto network Bit Gold, as the one HBO’s Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery will identify as Bitcoin’s pseudonymous creator, followed by Sassaman at 14% and Blockstream CEO Adam Back at 4.3%
Sassaman initially led with as high as 68% odds shortly after the betting platform opened the market on Oct. 4.
Favorites to be identified as HBO’s Satoshi Nakamoto. Source: Polymarket
Those odds dropped when the documentary’s producer, Cullen Hoback, told CNN on Oct. 7 that he confronted the person he thinks is the real Satoshi Nakamoto, which would rule out Sassaman because he died in 2011.
“We make a strong case [...] and I think their reaction is in some ways more telling than even the evidence itself.”
“It’s important for the public to have a sense of who [Satoshi] might be, particularly if they’re still involved,” Hoback added.
Sassaman’s widow, Meredith Patterson, also told DL News on Oct. 8 that HBO did not approach her for the documentary.
Hoback’s claimed confrontation with his Nakamoto pick would also rule out Hal Finney, an American software developer who received the first Bitcoin transaction from Nakamoto and passed away in 2014. Finney has 2.7% odds on Polymarket.
Jailed software programmer Paul Le Roux has 2.8% odds, while billionaire Elon Musk, former Nakamoto claimant Craig Wright, and other once-deemed Satoshis Dorian Nakamoto and David Kleiman have slimmer odds.
Polymarket’s “Other/Multiple” option currently boasts the highest odds at 37%.
Bit Gold, the network from Polymarket’s new Nakamoto frontrunner Szabo, never launched. Still, it was widely considered a precursor and influence to Bitcoin as it contained a peer-to-peer network, proof-of-work mining and cryptography concepts that were later built on Bitcoin.
Related: ‘I’ve moved on to other things’ — Satoshi Nakamoto’s final email revisited after 13 years
The links have led many to believe Szabo is Nakamoto, but he has refuted claims that he invented Bitcoin.
Hoback confirmed in an Oct. 5 X post that his documentary will “land on a specific name” — a possible giveaway that he thinks Bitcoin was launched by one person.
Source: Cullen Hoback
HBO’s documentary is set to air at 2:00 am UTC on Oct. 9.