Bitcoin, not memecoins, will continue to be a pivotal driving force in this bull run courtesy of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and the influence of the halving.
This was a key takeaway from day one of the Next Block Expo in Warsaw as prominent industry insiders unpacked major trends of the current market cycle.
Bitcoin (BTC) remains a clear focal point and driver of sentiment midway through 2024, as four experts told Cointelegraph on stage.
Adrian Zduńczyk, founder of the trading education platform The Birb Nest, said that historical data around previous halvings suggests significant upside for BTC into 2025.
“From 2011 through to the peak of 2013, we observed a 9,000% growth in the price appreciation,” Zduńczyk said.
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Highlighting that Bitcoin bullruns in 2017 and 2021 produced 3,000% and 700% gains respectively in the value of BTC, Zduńczyk said Bitcoin remains a core indicator of market performance:
“Those are the facts. There's no way to refute that. Bitcoin halving history has brought a massive price rise. Hence relying on the facts, the data is very favorable.”
Ben Yorke, ecosystem vice president at exchange platform WooX, also highlighted that there was no longer regulatory ambiguity around Bitcoin.
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He pointed to government and institutional validation with approval of Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. and Hong Kong as key examples of this.
“It makes it a very attractive proposition to young people around the world,” he said.
Regulatory green light is good for Bitcoin
Criticisms of Bitcoin’s utility are also being nullified as the proliferation of the Lightning network and other functionalities that allow a user to maintain full custody of their BTC. Yorke said that adoption of Bitcoin services like Lightning will ultimately quash these arguments.
“For the last ten years, we've been building a lot of infrastructure with applications like Lightning. Once these applications take off, the utility naysayers will have very few places to hide.”
Miko Matsumura, general partner of cryptocurrency asset fund Gumi Crypto, echoed these sentiments, suggesting that the development of infrastructure to improve the ability to use Bitcoin for payments would be an additional driver of capital into the ecosystem.
Zduńczyk added that the timing of regulatory greenlights of Bitcoin ETFs reflected the seasonality of investment cycles, with summer months often driving market performance of the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq:
“The ETFs nicely aligned because there was demand from the institutions and there was a legal infrastructure. All those big pension funds, all the central banks that are actually entering the space from 2025 onward.”
Zduńczyk also highlighted historical trends around U.S. presidential elections driving up performance of traditional markets spilling over into Bitcoin in years past.
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