Wharton professor and author of the book “Co-Intelligence: Living and Working with AI,” Ethan Mollick, recently opined that if artificial intelligence were to become smarter than humans, the first group to notice would likely be financial traders.
Mollick’s comments were posted on the X social media platform on Sept. 24, and they immediately sparked replies from numerous accounts associated with the cryptocurrency community.
Mollick’s statement on AGI, posted on X. Source: Ethan Mollick
“If AGI is achievable, the very first people who will know it will be traders who will suddenly find all of their good strategies & trades don’t work anymore, and that an unknown firm is on the winning side of all of them.”
Artificial general intelligence
Mollick’s comments reference artificial general intelligence (AGI), a nebulous term for an AI system capable of performing any task a human could, given the proper resources.
This could, hypothetically, lead to a machine capable of implementing optimal trading strategies. Mollick seems to be implying that the lure of cornering the global financial market via an advanced AI system would be too great for the organization behind it to resist.
While there isn’t a scientific benchmark for exactly when or how a regular AI system would become an AGI system, some of the companies involved in the development of both have begun making increasing claims that human-level AI will be possible within a matter of years.
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Human traders versus AGI
In some scenarios scientists have even predicted that an AGI could arise from the combined efforts of many developers in a self-evolving manner that may even surprise its developers.
In such a case, an AI system could sneak into the financial trading system — perhaps through cryptocurrency or the manipulation of altcoins — and conduct a coordinated, mass trading effort across digital assets. The same could also feasibly occur within the stock market or banking systems of any networked nation.
However, assuming the development of AGI will require a continuing and dedicated effort with human oversight and guidance involved at every step, then it may be likely that traders won’t be the first humans affected by its emergence.
As one AI developer recently opined, “If OpenAI’s o1 can pass OpenAI’s research engineer hiring interview for coding — 90% to 100% rate — then why would they continue to hire actual human engineers for this position?” They added that “every company is about to ask this question.”
Perhaps the first sign that machines have become as capable as humans will be when the companies building them stop hiring engineers and developers.
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