Many crypto industry pundits have predicted that a Donald Trump victory in the United States presidential election on Nov. 5 may trigger a major crypto market rally.
Still, some analysts warn that crypto investors should remain cautious in the days and weeks surrounding election day, as other factors may be at play.
“A Trump victory would likely provide a dopamine hit,” Swyftx lead analyst Pav Hundal told Cointelegraph, while also warning that markets would be more volatile in the days surrounding the election.
What should traders expect post-election? It’s up in the air, say analysts
Derive founder Nick Forster said that “traders should approach with caution” as the market is currently pricing in considerable volatility. He warned that “while there might be an upside, the risks are equally significant.”
Referring to Derive options data, Forster said traders are preparing for significant price movements around the election date.
“The increased buying of calls indicates some traders are indeed betting on a bullish outcome, potentially expecting a ‘buy the rumor’ scenario, but the reality could pivot quickly to a ‘sell the news’ dip depending on actual election outcomes.”
Since Oct. 23, Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed 7.62%, reaching $72,432 at the time of publication — just 2% away from its all-time high in March.
Bitcoin is trading at $72,432 at the time of publication. Source: TradingView
Still, Hundal doesn’t see the election result “as the decisive factor in Bitcoin hitting $100K.”
He echoed a similar sentiment to 10T Holdings founder Dan Tapiero, who said the asset is set to hit six figures regardless of which candidate wins the election.
“Barring some kind of exogenous shock, we’re looking at six-figure Bitcoin prices before year-end. Irrespective of who is in control of the White House.”
‘Diversified strategy’ may be best, says analyst
Whether traders should expect a “buy the news, sell the rumor” dump post-election or a crypto market surge if Trump wins the election remains uncertain, according to Forster.
Related: Trump win, ‘regulatory sanity’ is bad news for memecoins: Professor
Forster said that traders with the capacity to implement a “diversified strategy” including hedging options would be better off than “outright buying,” particularly given the market’s “high sensitivity” to domestic and global news.
Meanwhile, Hundal isn’t overly worried about traders timing their trades unless they are highly experienced, as he remains confident in upward growth heading into 2025.
“I’m not sure timing your trades matters too much in this environment unless you’re a sophisticated investor looking for short-term arbitrage opportunities on the US election result,” Hundal said.
“It’s entirely probable that the market will whipsaw on the US election result. But the underlying market fundamentals are pointing toward growth,” he added.
Hundal’s comments line up with those of FalconX’s head of research David Lawant, who said Bitcoin “is likely to perform well regardless of the election outcome,” in an Oct. 21 market report.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.