The cryptocurrency market is now in the “later stages of the current bull cycle,” and “caution is advised” for investors, according to data analytics provider CryptoQuant.
The bull market, which began in January 2023, is likely to reach its cyclical peak by the first quarter of 2025, or the second quarter at the latest, Crypto Dan, a CryptoQuant contributor, said in a Jan. 6 post.
“With a substantial influx of new investments as well as additional funds from existing investors, it is reasonable to expect that the market is now in the latter stages of this cycle,” the post said.
In the fourth quarter of 2024, the percentage of Bitcoin (BTC) traded for less than one month spiked to 36%, a pattern resembling prior crypto market tops, according to the post.
This ratio is likely to keep rising, potentially increasing by two to four times before correcting at the start of a bear cycle, CryptoQuant said.
“Therefore, expectations for substantial gains in both Bitcoin and altcoins should still be kept open,” the post said.
“Nevertheless, from a conservative standpoint and with risk management in mind, caution is advised.”
Source: CryptoQuant
Related: 2025 will be crypto’s best year ever — Steno Research
Contrasting views
CryptoQuant’s cautious take contrasts with the views of most analysts, who expect the bull run to continue through the end of 2025, potentially correcting in the fourth quarter.
Analysts at Steno Research expect 2025 to be crypto’s best year ever, with BTC and Ether (ETH) both crushing all-time highs, among other potential “remarkable positive developments.”
Asset manager VanEck expects the crypto bull market to hit a “medium-term peak” in the first quarter of 2025 before surging to all-time highs by the end of the year.
“At the cycle’s apex, we project Bitcoin (BTC) to be valued at around $180,000, with Ethereum trading above $6,000,” VanEck said in a December blog post authored by head of digital asset research Matthew Sigel.
Similarly, traders on betting markets Polymarket and Kalshi expect BTC and ETH to hit record highs in 2025. They also anticipate the United States greenlighting several new types of crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve.
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