Bitcoin (BTC) leveraged long (bull) positions on Bitfinex have soared to an impressive $5.1 billion on Feb. 19. This sharp increase has led to speculation that whales are setting up for a bull run. The mystery around this bullish move deepens since Bitcoin’s price has remained steady near $96,000 since Feb. 5. Traders are asking if this points to a bull run ahead.
Bitfinex Bitcoin margin longs, BTC. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph
Historically, Bitfinex traders are known for quickly opening or closing $100 million Bitcoin margin positions. This suggests whales and large arbitrage desks are active in the market. Currently, Bitfinex’s Bitcoin margin has reached 54,595 BTC, the highest level in almost three months. This rise is largely driven by the low 0.44% annual interest rate offered on the platform.
No matter the reason behind these large margin longs, lending markets currently show a strong tilt toward bullish Bitcoin bets. The very low cost of borrowing Bitcoin creates opportunities for market-neutral arbitrage, letting traders take advantage of the cheap interest rates.
For comparison, the annualized funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual futures is 10%. This difference between margin markets and futures creates an opportunity for the ‘cash and carry’ trade. In this strategy, traders buy spot Bitcoin and sell BTC futures at the same time to profit from the gap.
Bitcoin margin longs rose, but price stagnation suggests hedging
Bitcoin margin longs at Bitfinex have risen by 4,105 BTC year-to-date in 2025. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price struggled to hold bullish momentum, hitting $109,354 on Jan. 20 before dropping back to erase all gains by Feb. 5. This suggests the rise in BTC margin longs hasn’t moved Bitcoin’s price, hinting that these trades may be fully hedged using derivatives or spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs).
Traders should check other data to see if this trend is unique to margin markets. For example, monthly Bitcoin contracts usually trade at a 5% to 10% annualized premium due to their longer settlement. In bullish markets, this can climb to 20% or more, while it falls when traders turn bearish.
Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch
The Bitcoin futures premium fell below the 10% bullish mark on Feb. 3 and has since stayed neutral. This has limited optimism in margin markets, as demand for leveraged long positions in futures has dropped since Bitcoin price couldn’t hold above $100,000.
The rise in Bitfinex Bitcoin leveraged longs likely reflects arbitrage trades with little market impact. Still, low borrowing rates offer a chance for traders to use leverage. However, investors are wary of current macroeconomic conditions, which may reduce interest in pushing Bitcoin above the current $96,000 level.
Related: Bitcoin’s price movement ‘looks very manufactured’ — Samson Mow
Minutes from the latest United States Federal Reserve meeting, released on Feb. 19, highlighted several factors that could drive inflation higher, along with a “high degree of uncertainty” regarding economic growth. In such an environment, investors often seek refuge in the stock market, benefiting from corporate dividends and well-capitalized tech companies.
On Feb. 19, the S&P 500 index reached an all-time high, while gold, another safe-haven asset, surged to $2,930, approaching its record level. These movements signal that investors are positioning for inflation risks, reinforcing Bitcoin’s potential for a bull run as the asset transitions from a speculative play to a global hedge supported by sovereign wealth funds such as Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.