Bitcoin positions held by short-term holders became unprofitable as BTC prices fell to a 15-week low, and this cohort of traders responded by moving nearly 80,000 BTC to exchanges.
The latest data from onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant hints at the reasons why traders would send a massive amount of Bitcoin to centralized exchanges, a move which is historically viewed as bearish for BTC’s price action.
Bitcoin speculators capitulate as price falls below their cost basis
Bitcoin (BTC) short-term holders (STHs) — entities hodling for up to 155 days — appear to have capitulated in fear during the latest crypto market downturn.
As BTC/USD fell to near $86,000 on Feb. 25, these speculators sent 79,300 BTC ( nearly $7 billion) to exchange wallets in a 24-hour period. Sending Bitcoin to exchange wallets does not necessarily confirm that the coins were sold. Traders could have sent the BTC to top up the margin on leveraged positions or to prepare for selling or buying Bitcoin at a preset price.
“This is the largest Bitcoin sell-off of 2025,” CryptoQuant contributing analyst Axel Adler Jr. said in a commentary while uploading the figures to X.
The chart shows the rolling 24-hour profit and loss transactions topping any other period so far this year. While it does not confirm that users sold coins sent to exchange wallets, the data underscores the atmosphere of uncertainty among shorter-term traders.
STH in-loss exchange transactions. Source: CryptoQuant
“Yesterday’s price drop likely triggered panic selling, and if further corrections occur, similar behavior could reemerge,” fellow contributor Avocado_onchain continued in one of CryptoQuant’s “Quicktake” blog posts on Feb. 26.
The post analyzed the spent output profit ratio (SOPR) metric, which tracks the ratio of coins moved in profit or at a loss onchain.
STH-SOPR fell to 0.964 on Feb. 25, its lowest since August 2024 at the height of the Japanese yen carry-trade unwind.
“On the other hand, long-term holders have remained largely unfazed by the recent plunge, maintaining their holdings and providing support against additional price declines,” Avocado_onchain observed.
STH vs. LTH SOPR. Source: CryptoQuant
”Nothing to be bearish about”
Despite the strength of the current market correction, James Check, creator of onchain data resource Checkonchain, argued that crossing the aggregate breakeven point for the STH cohort at $90,000 would be a key turning point.
“It’s kind of interesting that we’ve got this support level, which should hold, at around $90,000, but below it there’s just not much,” he said in the latest episode of the Checkonchain podcast, Rough Consensus, recorded just before the crash.
Related: BTC price levels to watch as Bitcoin skids to 3-month lows under $87K
Check noted that “very little” of the BTC supply had changed hands between the old highs and current local lows near $86,000.
Referencing Bitcoin’s realized price versus its onchain cost basis across long and short-term holder cohorts also adds useful perspective to the current scenario.
According to Glassnode, looking at the 7-day percent change in the realized price for various onchain cohorts “helps to identify periods where the aggregate cost basis has increased or decreased by a significant amount over a short period of time.”
While short-term holders are currently at a loss from their realized price of $92,595, longer-term holders maintain a cost basis of $24,845.
Bitcoin long and short-term onchain cost basis. Source: Glassnode
Discussing the panicked nature of the week’s market behavior, popular Bitcoin names called for a more level-headed approach.
For digital asset lawyer Joe Carlasare, the euphoria of the past quarter, ever since Bitcoin broke beyond old all-time highs of $73,800, has skewed perceptions of its capabilities.
“The panic is palpable. In December, everyone swore Bitcoin couldn’t go down. ‘Nation-state bid is here, bro!’ Now they’re convinced it can’t go up,” he summarized on X.
“Reality? Bitcoin overshoots both ways. Could it go lower? Sure. But this is the buy zone. Nothing to be bearish about.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.