Bitcoin investors should brace themselves for a “seasonal slog” in September, which historically delivers the worst average returns, according to the Bitcoin financial services platform, New York Digital Investment Group (NYDIG).
“Unfortunately, potential upcoming near-term catalysts for Bitcoin (BTC) are sparse at the moment,” wrote NYDIG’s global head of research, Greg Cipolaro, in a Sept. 10 market update.
Cipolaro added that Bitcoin investors may only be able to look for a few catalysts external to crypto in the coming weeks, with a tight focus on very specific macroeconomic developments.
“Most catalysts have to do with macroeconomic data (inflation, unemployment, gross domestic product growth) or monetary decisions (Federal Open Market Committee interest rate decisions), and very few are crypto or Bitcoin-specific.”
Bitcoin has risen just over 3% in the past 24 hours, buoyed by solid performance in the S&P 500 and the tech-heavy Nasdaq, which both closed with respective gains of 1.16% on Sept. 9.
Bitcoin is up 3.1% on the day, alongside a rally in equities. Source: CoinGecko
Several commentators have noted that September is historically the worst month for Bitcoin price action, with the largest cryptocurrency posting a mean September loss of 5.9% in the 13 years since 2011.
September’s mean monthly losses for Bitcoin since 2011 stand at -5.9%. Source: NYDIG
The fourth quarter of the year — now less than three weeks away — has typically proved the strongest for Bitcoin, with October and November posting respective mean gains of 16.1% and 40.6%, according to NYDIG data.
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Cipolaro said the most “looming” concern for the crypto market is the upcoming United States presidential election in November.
Former President Donald Trump has “made his mark” as the crypto-friendly candidate, but much less is known about Vice President Kamala Harris’ stance on digital assets. This could lead to heightened uncertainty and increased volatility in the meantime.
“We won’t guess as to which candidate might win the election, but November might be a pivotal moment for the industry. Until that time, however, Bitcoin might be at the whims of the broader market backdrop,” said Cipolaro.
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