Despite the recent Bitcoin correction to five-month lows, Bitcoin could extend its bull rally for another year.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) price could rally for another 350 days, based on the current trough-to-peak ratio, which analyzes the price tops and bottoms printed by an asset or security.
Based on Bitcoin’s ratios during the previous cycles, the bull run will extend into the third quarter of 2025, according to a report by Bybit and BlockScholes, shared with Cointelegraph.
“With a current trough-to-peak ratio of 3.5x, significantly lower than the 20x observed in prior cycles, the report suggests that the rally may continue for another 350 days before surpassing previous peaks.”
Bitcoin is currently recovering from a $510 billion crypto market sell-off.
Bitcoin fell below a key post-halving growth trajectory when it dropped under $63,000, but recovering the trendline before the end of 2024 cut put Bitcoin back on track to the $100,000 mark, based on previous Bitcoin halving cycles.
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Bitcoin is in the second phase of the bull cycle: Bybit
Based on historical chart patterns, Bitcoin is currently in the second phase of the cycle, according to Nathan Thompson, the lead tech writer at Bybit. Thompson told Cointelegraph:
“First, at the beginning of the cycle, we see BTC spot price recover from its cycle lows back towards the all-time high value that it recorded in the previous cycle. Then, we have in each case observed BTC spot price push past that previous all-time high into new, unexplored higher price levels.”
Thompson’s analysis aligns with those of other notable crypto analysts, including Rekt Capital. The popular analyst believes that we are 42.5% through the current bull cycle, based on previous Bitcoin halving cycles.
Bull market progress. Source: Rekt Capital
Related: Bitcoin price drops below $59K as institutions stop buying stablecoins
Institutions are mainly driving the 2024 Bitcoin rally
Retail investors had a smaller rate of participation in the current cycle due to the lower level of personal savings, following a period of high inflation.
Bitcoin correlation with US equities. Source: Bybit & BlockScholes
Based on Bitcoin’s correlation with traditional equities, institutional investors have mainly driven Bitcoin’s 2024 rally, according to the report:
“The changing intra-asset correlation structure between crypto and meme coins suggests that a different type of investor may be behind the most recent rally in prices: institutions. The renewed co-movement with equities coincides with the launch of BTC Spot ETFs in early January 2024, as well as the unlocking of a new pool of demand for crypto.”
Moreover, the inflows from the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been highly correlated with Bitcoin’s peaks and lows since their launch.
Bitcoin ETF inflows correlation with BTC rally, 2024. Source: Bybit & BlockScholes
ETF inflows can significantly contribute to a cryptocurrency’s price appreciation. For Bitcoin, ETFs accounted for about 75% of new investment in the cryptocurrency by Feb. 15 as it surpassed the $50,000 mark
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