Bitcoin (BTC) could be seeing the final innings of a macro bull run, a historically accurate on-chain metric says.
The value days destroyed (VDD) multiple, which forecast previous BTC price tops, has hit a “rare” high.
VDD multiple hits “rare” high
Bitcoin has so far failed to flip either new all-time highs or its previous peak from 2021 to firm support.
Some remain confident that BTC price discovery will return, but those analyzing on-chain signals are becoming concerned.
Among them is analyst TXMC, host of YouTube channel Alpha Beta Soup.
Uploading fresh VDD multiple data to X this week, TXMC revealed that the chart had printed highs seen only shortly before BTC/USD puts in macro tops.
“The rare 4.0 print,” he wrote in accompanying commentary.
“Has on-chain momentum topped?”
The VDD Multiple compares on-chain spending to historical averages to determine when market psychology is dictating a blow-off top for price. The “value days destroyed” component relates to the number of days for which coins were previously dormant when used on-chain.
In March, when the VDD multiple was at around 3.5, TXMC already described it as “overheated.”
“It isn’t perfect, but notable,” he wrote at the time.
This year nonetheless includes a key difference from early 2021. During the VDD multiple’s last spike, BTC/USD had already doubled its prior all-time high of $20,000.
“We are printing the same value in 2024 while still AT the prior all-time high,” TXMC added, concluding that the overall picture was “uncertain.”
RSI preserves key support after flush
As Cointelegraph recently reported, other chart metrics have been giving traders cause for cautious optimism.
Related: Plotting the path to $80K — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
Among them are classic pointers such as the relative strength index (RSI), which recently saw a “reset” to levels that last appeared in late January.
Daily RSI stood at 53 on April 10, per data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView — still far below the traditional “overbought” zone, which begins at 70 and tends to accompany the steepest portion of BTC price cycle gains.
“In a strong bullish trend, it’s usually time for a bounce when Bitcoin’s daily RSI retests ±50. It’s retesting ±50 right now,” popular traded Jelle noted on the day.
Popular trader Alan Tardigrade reiterated promising signals on 4-hour RSI timeframes in the form of a hidden bullish divergence with price.
"Hidden bullish divergence happens here while $BTC makes a higher low (HL), but RSI is showing a lower low (LL). This signals the possible uptrend continuation," he told X followers alongside a chart.
Monthly timeframes continue to hold above 70, a feature on the radar of controversial analyst Plan B and others in advance of Bitcoin’s incoming block subsidy halving.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.