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The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
Christmas has brought some cheer to the crypto traders. The total crypto market capitalization has spiked by about 29 percent from just under $101 billion on Dec. 15 to $143 billion on Christmas Eve.
Though it is still way below its all-time-high, the growth over the past few days is showing signs of a bottom formation. In a recent tweet, co-founder of Ethereum, Joseph Lubin, has called a cryptobottom of 2018.
The current bounce can only continue until a certain level, after which the market participants will wait for the fundamental factors to improve.
One of the most closely watched metrics is the level of institutional interest in the industry. Though a number of big names have expressed their interest, not much has happened on the ground.
The markets are pinning their hopes on new product offerings, clarity in regulations and a bottom in cryptocurrencies to attract the larger players in 2019. Any evidence of a major player entering the markets will act as a strong catalyst for an upward move in digital currencies.
Should the traders hold their positions after the recent upswing or should they book profits? Let’s find out.
BTC/USD
Bitcoin is currently facing resistance at $4,255. However, the positive thing is that it has held above the 20-day EMA since breaking out of it.
A break out of $4,255 can result in a move to $4,500. The falling 50-day SMA is also located just above this level, so we anticipate the bulls to offer a strong defense of this level.
We recommend short-term traders to book profits on more than 75 percent of their positions closer to $4,500, and trail the remaining allocation with a close stop loss. If the bulls break out of the 50-day SMA, the rally can extend to $4,914.11. Nonetheless, we give it a low probability of occurring.
The next move down will find strong support at the 20-day EMA and below it at $3,787.33. A breach of this zone will weaken the recovery and increase the probability of a retest of the lows.
The long-term trend on the BTC/USD pair is still down, but the short-term trend has changed. If the next dip stays above $3,787.33, and the next move up forms a higher high, we can confirm that the Dec. 15 low was the bottom. The next few days are going to be critical for the leading cryptocurrency.
XRP/USD
Ripple has broken out of the $0.4 level, which is a bullish sign. It can now reach the resistance line of the descending channel, which is likely to act as a stiff resistance.
The 20-day EMA has turned up and the 50-day SMA has flattened out. The RSI has also risen close to the overbought levels. This shows that the trend is reversing, and the bottom at $0.24508 is unlikely to be breached.
On the upside, the XRP/USD pair might face a roadblock closer to $0.5 where the traders can book partial profits and raise the stops on the remaining position. A break out of this can extend the rally to $0.565 and then to $0.625. Therefore, we are not suggesting to close the entire positions at $0.5. Our bullish view will be invalidated if the price reverses direction and plunges below the 20-day EMA.
ETH/USD
Ethereum has broken above $136.12 with ease and is close to the major overhead resistance of $167.32. Traders who have booked profits at $136.12 can close the remaining positions near $167.32. We anticipate a pullback or a consolidation at this level. Conversely, if the digital currency breaks out of $167.32, it can rise to $211.
The 20-day EMA has turned up and the 50-day SMA is flattening out. The RSI has risen from deeply oversold to overbought levels. This shows that the short-term trend has changed.
If the next dip finds support at one of the moving averages, it will confirm a bottom at $83. We expect the ETH/USD pair to spend some time in a range before starting a new uptrend.
BCH/USD
Bitcoin Cash has been consolidating near the swing highs for the past three days. The bears have not been able to push the price down, which shows that the bulls are in no urgency to book profits and are buying every minor dip.
If the price stays above the 20-day EMA for the next 2–3 days, we anticipate another attempt to break out of the 50-day SMA. If successful, the pullback can extend to $307.01, which is the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline. The traders should continue to trail their stops higher.
On the other hand, if the BCH/USD pair turns down from the 50-day SMA, it might find support at the 20-day EMA. Any break of the moving averages will disrupt the upside momentum and result in a range bound action for a few weeks. The downtrend will resume if the bears sink the pair below $73.5.
EOS/USD
EOS is attempting to break out of the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement level of $3.0510. Overhead, we anticipate a strong resistance at the 50-day SMA and at $3.8723.
If these two levels are scaled, the recovery can extend to the next major resistance at $4.493. We expect the $3.8723–$4.493 zone to act as a major hurdle.
The next leg down is likely to find support at the 20-day EMA. Any break of this support can result in consolidation for a few days. The EOS/USD pair will resume its downtrend if it plunges below $1.55.
XLM/USD
Stellar has broken out of the 20-day EMA and $0.13427050. This is a bullish sign that opens the gate for a move to the 50-day SMA and $0.184.
The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI has risen into the positive zone, which shows that demand has overtaken supply in the short-term. However, the 50-day SMA is sloping down. It implies that the long-term trend is still down.
The pair remains an underperformer, so we do not advise any trades in it. The recovery will weaken if XLM/USD slides below $0.11196656.
LTC/USD
Litecoin has reached the overhead resistance of $36.428, as we had anticipated. We expect the bears to pose a stiff challenge at this level. If successful, the price can dip back to the 20-day EMA.
However, if the bulls pierce through the overhead resistance, the LTC/USD pair can extend the recovery to $47.246. Therefore, traders can trail their stops on the remaining positions.
The 20-day EMA has turned up and the RSI has jumped into the positive territory. This suggests an advantage for the bulls in the near term. We expect $23.1 to be the bottom as long as the price sustains above $29.349.
BSV/USD
Bitcoin SV is range bound between $80.352 and $123.98. The attempt to break out of the range failed on Dec. 20 and 21. Nevertheless, the bulls have held the price above $100 for the past three days, which shows buying on every small dip.
We anticipate another attempt to break out of the range within the next 3–4 of days. If the breakout sustains, the recovery can extend to $167.608. While the traders holding partial positions can ride the move higher, fresh positions can also be initiated on a close above $123.98 with a stop loss not far behind.
On the other hand, if the bears defend $123.98 on a closing (UTC time frame) basis, the BSV/USD pair might remain range bound for the next few days. We might suggest long positions once again if the price bounces off $80.352. The trend will weaken if the bears push the price below $65.031.
TRX/USD
TRON is not giving up ground, which indicates sustained buying by the bulls. The moving averages are on the verge of completing a bullish crossover, which denotes a trend change. If the bulls scale $0.025, the next move higher is likely to reach the overhead resistance of $0.02815521.
The TRX/USD pair has turned down three times from $0.02815521, so we expect a strong defense of this level by the bears. The RSI in the overbought zone shows that a pullback is around the corner.
We anticipate the cryptocurrency to consolidate in the range of $0.0183–$0.02815521 for the next few weeks. A break out of this range will start a new uptrend. We might propose long positions if the next dip holds above $0.0183 or the 20-day EMA. Our view of a trend change will be invalidated if the pair breaks down of the moving averages.
ADA/USD
Cardano is attempting to break out of the 50-day SMA and rise to the next overhead resistance at $0.060105. Traders who have about 50 percent of their positions left can either book the rest of the profits at this level or trail the stops very closely.
The 20-day EMA has turned up while the RSI has risen from the oversold zone to the overbought zone. This shows that the bulls have the upper hand in the short-term. However, the 50-day SMA is still sloping down, which means that the long-term trend is still down.
We anticipate another leg down, so the recommendation is to book complete profits close to $0.060105. Traders can re-enter on dips. Any correction is likely to find support at the 20-day EMA and below that at $0.033065. Our bullish view will be invalidated if the ADA/USD pair breaks below the Dec. 7 low.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange. The charts for the analysis are provided by TradingView.