Bitcoin hit the historic $100,000 milestone despite a lack of price momentum in most major global assets and a backdrop of declining global liquidity.
Bitcoin (BTC) surpassed the $100,000 high for the first time on Dec. 6, in a long-awaited milestone for crypto history.
The historic peak comes despite sluggish performance across other major global assets. Over the past month, Bitcoin’s price surged by 32%, while oil dropped 6.3%, the S&P 500 fell 1% and gold declined by 1%.
BTC, gold, oil, S&P 500, 1-month chart. Source: TradingView, Cointelegraph
Bitcoin’s rally against other global assets is a promising signal for Bitcoin investors, bolstering analyst expectations that the current bull rally will last until the end of 2025 — in what’s known as the “euphoria stage” in crypto trader slang.
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Bitcoin to rally until the end of 2025 in “euphoria stage”
Bitcoin has entered the euphoria stage based on the long-term holder net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) metric.
This could extend Bitcoin’s rally until the end of 2025, according to Quinten François, co-founder of WeRate, who wrote in a Dec. 7 X post:
“Bitcoin is entering the euphoria stage. You have a maximum of 12 months before the cycle top.”
Bitcoin long-term holder NUPL. Source: QuintenFramcois
The NUPL is used to measure whether the overall Bitcoin network is at a state of profit or loss, based on the difference between unrealized profit and unrealized loss among BTC holders.
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Another promising sign for Bitcoin’s trajectory is that the all-time high came despite a backdrop of global liquidity, according to James Coutts, chief crypto analyst at Real Vision, who wrote in a Dec. 6 X post:
“Bitcoin has hit new ATHs in the face of a deteriorating liquidity backdrop. If conditions worsen, the rally, while euphoric, can only last for a limited time. If conditions ease from here, then a pullback is warranted, but then off we go again.”
Global M2 bottom. Source: Jamie Coutts
A potential bottom in the global M2 liquidity — an estimate of all cash and short-term bank deposits — also suggests that Bitcoin may extend its rally in the short term before a potential correction.
Based on its correlation with the liquidity index, Bitcoin is set for a “local top” above $110,000 by Jan. 2025, according to Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor.
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