Bitcoin (BTC) price jumped 7.75% from its recent low of $59,815 on Oct. 3 to a monthly high of $64,448 on Oct. 7, demonstrating a bullish start to what may be a volatile week.
As illustrated in the chart below, Bitcoin briefly dropped under the 200-day EMA (yellow line) at the beginning of the month, but an immediate positional recovery above the indicator allowed prices to push higher over the past four days.
BTC/USDT on the 4-hour chart. Source: Trading View
Also Read: 'Definition of a leverage driven pump' — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week
Bitcoin “higher low locked in,” says analyst
Bitcoin declined 8.8% between Sept. 30 and Oct. 4, leading to a key re-test of the psychological level at $60,000. Since then, the price has recovered to almost $64,000, which currently puts the monthly return on investment (ROI) at a positive value.
Jelle, a crypto analyst, believes that BTC’s recent recovery confirms a strong bullish pattern. When Bitcoin moved above $65,000 at the end of September, it formed the first higher-high (HH) pattern in five months. Now, a higher low (HL) confirmation is key for the uptrend, which the analyst believes is currently “locked in” after Bitcoin re-tested the key resistance/support region.
Bitcoin daily chart analysis by Jelle. Source: X.com
Meanwhile, another independent analyst, Titan of Crypto, highlighted an upcoming weekly golden cross for Bitcoin, which has bullish historical odds from 2023. The analyst mentions,
“BTC’s current price action closely mirrors last year around this time: a fake death cross followed by a golden cross that triggered a 145% rally.”
Bitcoin price “correlates” with the stablecoin market cap
Despite Bitcoin’s recent recovery, it was down 2.87% in the last seven days. This might have been due to its relationship with stablecoins. IT Tech, a verified on-chain analyst on CryptoQuant, highlighted a key correlation between BTC and stablecoin’s market cap. The analyst says,
“An increase in the market cap of stablecoins (USDT and USDC) often correlates with rising Bitcoin prices, suggesting higher market liquidity and demand.”
Meanwhile, a drop in the stablecoin supply may indicate an increase in selling pressure, and reduced liquidity, which leads to BTC’s price correction.
Since Sept. 30, the net USDT market cap has increased by $161 million, which means it should have had a positive impact on Bitcoin price. However, the total USDC market cap change is negative $654.83 million, which brings the total stablecoin net change to negative $493 million.
Bitcoin USDC Market cap change chart. Source: X.com
Hence, an improving stablecoin market cap could be a potential signal of higher Bitcoin prices in the following weeks. Mister Crypto, an independent investor, also mentions the same correlation in an X post, stating:
Bitcoin versus stablecoin supply chart by Mister Crypto. Source: X.com
Bitcoin eyes pivotal daily close above $64K
From a technical perspective, the chart shows an HH and HL pattern, but a daily close above $64,000 remains pivotal. While BTC reached a high of $64,400 a few hours ago, it is currently attempting to close above $64,000.
Bitcoin remains between the supply zone of $64,130-$63,300, which was formed on Sept. 1. Since spot bids haven't been involved in the recent rally, swing traders could look to take profits on their swing longs around this price range.
BTC/USDT on the 6-hour chart. Source: Trading View
However, a daily close above $64,000 will be a strong indication of continued momentum since it would illustrate a position above the supply zone and a confirmed monthly high.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.