Bitcoin (BTC) may not be performing as predicted for the start of October, but it may be premature for analysts to call where the remainder of the month is headed as investors are laser-focused on broader economy events, according to a crypto analyst.
“It might be too early to judge the trend for the rest of the month as most investors are largely reactionary to macro events,” Bitget chief crypto analyst Ryan Lee opined in an Oct. 2 report viewed by Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin is down 5.76% since Sept. 27. Source: TradingView
Traders echoed a similar sentiment, noting that this year’s different start to October doesn’t predict how the rest of the month will unfold.
Bitcoin trading volume drop due to investors on sidelines
“Just because Uptober started this way doesn’t mean it will end the same,” CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler claimed.
Lee pointed out that the 16% drop in spot BTC trading volume since Oct. 1 shows dwindling sentiment but noted that it “is explainable.”
He suggested that investors would prefer to wait on the sidelines with macroeconomic uncertainty and take more of a risk-off-asset approach.
Bitcoin’s market capitalization has declined approximately 2.5% since Oct. 1. Source: CoinMarketCap
“Investors will prefer not to get caught up in a macroeconomic situation that will tie down their capital,” Lee explained.
What’s delaying “Uptober?”
Several macroeconomic events may be keeping investors on the sidelines, including expectations of more Fed rate cuts after September’s 50 basis point reduction, the United States presidential election and escalating tensions in the Middle East.
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However, Lee suggested that clearer conditions could lead to a short-term 18% price surge for Bitcoin.
“BTC has sustained over the $60,000 support level and may fluctuate in the $72,000 range; the anticipation for fed interest rate cuts and market rebound may come from Bitcoin’s historically optimistic Q4s.”
Lee also highlighted that despite the decline in trading volume since the beginning of October, “institutional investors continue to buy digital currency at a rate at par or higher than the quantity mined daily.”
For example, the latest Farside data shows that spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) within the US have attracted over 18,500 BTC (worth over $1.1 billion at today’s prices) in 10 months.
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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.