Bitcoin (BTC) extended its decline by more than 3% this week as bears maintained their selling pressure. Although the price dipped below the short-term holder realized price (STH-RP) of $64,230, the bears could not deepen the correction. This suggests that the bulls are trying to defend the STH-RP, the aggregate cost basis of Bitcoin holders — wallets storing Bitcoin for 155 days or less.
According to Farside Investors data, Bitcoin’s weakness has resulted in sustained outflows from the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds since June 13. This suggests that Bitcoin investors are nervous about the near-term prospects.
Independent analyst Willy Woo said in a post on X that Bitcoin’s recovery is likely to start after the “weak miners die” and the hashrate recovers. In 2020, the hashrate recovered in 8 days; in 2017, the recovery took 24 days. Woo added that miner capitulation is taking a lot of time post-halving this year, possibly due to “ordinal inscriptions boosting profits.”
If Bitcoin starts to trade above $64,602, it is likely to attract buying in select altcoins. Let’s study the top 5 cryptocurrencies that look strong on the charts.
Bitcoin price analysis
Bitcoin broke below the $64,602 support on June 21, but the bears failed to build upon their advantage. This suggests that selling dries up at lower levels.
The bulls will have to drive the price above the moving averages to trap the aggressive bears. If they do that, the BTC/USDT pair is likely to pick up momentum and rally to $70,000 and then to $72,000. The bears are expected to mount a strong defense in the $72,000 to $73,777 zone.
Contrarily, if the price turns down from the current level or the moving averages, it will signal that the sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on rallies. That will increase the likelihood of a deeper correction to $60,000.
The 4-hour chart shows the bulls are attempting a recovery, which is facing selling at the 20-EMA. If the price continues lower, the bears will again try to sink the pair below $63,379 and resume the down move. If they do that, the pair could slump to $60,000.
However, the positive divergence on the relative strength index (RSI) suggests that the selling pressure may reduce. The bulls will gain strength on a break and close above the 50-simple moving average. The pair could rise to $67,000 and after that to $70,000.
Toncoin price analysis
The bulls did not allow Toncoin (TON) to slip below the 50-day SMA ($6.83), indicating solid buying at lower levels.
The bulls are trying to push the price above the overhead resistance of $7.67. If they can pull it off, the TON/USDT pair could rally to $8.29. This level may act as a stiff resistance, but if the bulls prevail, the pair may start its march to $10.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price turns down from the current level and breaks below $6.60, it will complete a head-and-shoulders pattern. That could start a downward move toward the pattern target of $4.91.
The bears repeatedly pulled the price below the uptrend line but could not start a down move. This suggests that bulls aggressively purchased at lower levels. The $7.67 to $8.29 zone is likely to witness strong selling by the bears, but if the bulls prevail, the pair could march toward $10.
The first support to watch on the downside is the 20-EMA. If this level gives way, it will signal that the pair may swing between $6.60 and $7.67 for a while. The bears will gain the upper hand on a break and close below $6.77.
Pepe price analysis
Pepe (PEPE) has been correcting for the past few days, but the bounce off $0.000010 shows that the bulls are attempting a rebound.
Buyers will have to kick the price above the downtrend line and the moving averages to signal the start of a sustained recovery. The PEPE/USDT pair could rise to $0.000014 and subsequently to $0.000016.
On the contrary, if the price turns down from the downtrend line or the moving averages, it will indicate that the bears continue to sell on rallies. A break below $0.000010 could open the doors for a fall to $0.000008.
The 20-EMA has flattened out on the 4-hour chart, and the RSI is just below the midpoint, suggesting a balance between supply and demand. If buyers drive the price above the downtrend line, the pair could reach $0.000014. This level may act as a minor hurdle, but if cleared, the pair may extend the relief rally to $0.000016.
The advantage will tilt in favor of the bears if the uptrend line breaks down. That could pull the price to the strong support zone between $0.000009 and $0.000010.
Related: Bitcoin prepping breakout with '$90K+' BTC price target — New analysis
Kaspa price analysis
Kaspa (KAS) bounced off the 50-day SMA ($0.14) on June 18, signaling buying at lower levels. The bulls continued their purchase and pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.15) on June 23.
If buyers maintain the momentum and drive the price above the downtrend line, it will suggest that the correction may be over. The KAS/USDT pair could attempt a rally to the stiff overhead resistance of $0.19.
The critical support to watch on the downside is the 50-day SMA. A break and close below this level will indicate the start of a sharper correction to $0.10. The bulls will attempt to arrest the decline at $0.10.
The moving averages on the 4-hour chart are on the verge of a crossover, and the RSI is in the positive territory, indicating that the bulls are attempting a comeback. A break and close above $0.16 will clear the path for a rally to $0.18.
On the other hand, if the price skids below the moving averages, the bears will again try to sink the pair below $0.14. If this level holds, the pair is likely to consolidate between $0.14 and $0.16 for some time. If the $0.14 level cracks, the pair may tumble to $0.13.
JasmyCoin price analysis
JasmyCoin (JASMY) rebounded off the 50-day SMA ($0.03) on June 21, indicating that the lower levels are attracting buyers.
The 20-day EMA ($0.03) is flattening out, and the RSI is near the midpoint, indicating that the selling pressure is reducing. If buyers overcome the resistance at the 20-day EMA, the JASMY/USDT pair could rally to $0.04.
Alternatively, if the price turns down from the 20-day EMA, it will signal that the bears have not given up and they continue to sell on rallies. The pair may then spend some time oscillating between the moving averages. A break and close below the 50-day SMA could start a deeper fall toward $0.02.
The 4-hour chart shows that the bulls are attempting to start a relief rally, which is facing resistance in the zone between the 50-SMA and the downtrend line. The crucial support to watch on the downside is the 20-EMA. If the price rebounds off the 20-EMA, it will improve the prospects of a break above the downtrend line. If that happens, the pair may climb to $0.04.
Contrary to this assumption, a drop below the 20-EMA will suggest that the bears are maintaining their pressure. The selling could intensify on a break below the channel. The pair may then plunge to $0.02.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.