Bitcoin (BTC) jumped up to 3.7% on Nov. 5 as United States presidential election volatility hit crypto.
BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView
BTC price volatility enters with a bang as voting begins
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked a blitz BTC price move to near $70,300 on Bitstamp.
A subsequent correction saw BTC/USD swiftly return to $69,500, but it was mostly short positions seeing liquidations as the abrupt surge caught the market by surprise.
Source: Eric Balchunas
“Sudden spot buying in unison,” popular trader Exitpump told followers on X about the latest BTC price action.
BTC/USD chart with exchange volume data. Source: Exitpump/X
Some compared the landscape to previous election years, with fellow trader Moustache considering the likelihood of Bitcoin having already put in a local bottom.
“Imagine BTC bottomed out just before the US election. The majority assumed it would happen afterwards,” he wrote alongside a comparative chart.
“That would be the perfect front run tbh. In 2020, the whole scenario looked very similar.”
BTC/USDT 1-week chart. Source: Moustache/X
Bitcoin closely copies previous election years
In its latest Weekly Report seen by Cointelegraph, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant continued the similarities.
Related: Bitcoin price needs 2 months to return ‘above macro trend’ — Forecast
“The Bitcoin price has rallied after the last three US presidential elections,” it summarized.
“The price of Bitcoin was up 37% in 2016 from the election day to the end of the year. The performance in the same period was +98% in 2020 and +22% in 2012. It is worth noting that the price of Bitcoin in 2024 has performed very similar to 2016.”
BTC price comparison chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
CryptoQuant went on to describe Bitcoin as “fairly valued.”
“This means that if there’s a positive catalyst after the elections, prices can rally as they are not overvalued,” it added.
Market volatility, meanwhile, conformed to expectations, as reported by trading firm QCP Capital.
“The crypto market is currently pricing in a +/-3.5% in BTC spot movement on the election night itself,” it noted in its latest bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers earlier on the day.
“Yet, traders may be underpricing post-election risk: the current lack of volatility premium beyond the November 8 expiry suggests that markets expect a quick resolution, possibly underestimating potential delays or contested outcomes.”
Charles Edwards, founder of quantitative Bitcoin and digital asset fund Capriole Investments, was among those also seeing Bitcoin shrugging off the election to continue its bull run.
Here, he argued this week, inflows into the US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) spoke for themselves.
Source: Charles Edwards
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