Bitcoin (BTC) briefly ventured above $68,000 on Oct. 16, the highest level since August, but holding this level proved harder than anticipated. With Bitcoin price now trading below $67,500, the primary question at hand is whether BTC price can restore its bullish momentum.
Stronger-than-expected economic data in the United States reduced investors’ appetite for alternative hedging instruments, while a strong earnings report by TSMC shifted traders’ attention to the stock market.
The macroeconomic environment played an important role in Bitcoin’s rejection at $68,000, but one event in the cryptocurrency industry in particular has triggered expectations of a more benevolent attitude toward crypto from the current Biden-Harris administration.
Is a strong US economy a net negative for Bitcoin’s price?
The US Labor Department reported on Oct. 17 that jobless claims decreased by 19,000 for the week ending Oct. 12. This data serves as a proxy for corporate layoffs and indicates that the economy remains relatively strong. Additionally, the US Commerce Department's Census Bureau announced that August retail sales rose by 0.4% compared to the previous month.
Jonathan Millar, senior US economist at Barclays, told Yahoo Finance that “consumer spending, net hiring, and payroll income have been locked in a resilient and self-reinforcing virtuous cycle throughout this expansion.” Higher spending is typically viewed as a net positive for corporate earnings, thereby favoring the stock market over Bitcoin.
S&P500 (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView
S&P 500 gains on Oct. 17 were driven by Nvidia (NVDA), whose shares increased by 3% to reach a new all-time high. This movement followed gains from Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC), a major AI chip supplier, which reported strong third-quarter results and raised its revenue forecast for 2024. TSMC shares surged 13%, capturing investors’ attention and capital.
Whether or not one believes Bitcoin directly competes with tech stocks, part of its value derives from risk-on trades, where investors seek returns in sectors that typically benefit from increased market liquidity. This effect has intensified as Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have surpassed $50 billion in assets under management.
Related: US lagging behind in global stablecoin adoption — Chainalysis
Bitcoin’s momentum could shift if Ripple wins in court
A key event in the cryptocurrency market that could signal a more favorable regulatory stance from the Biden Administration would be a court win from Ripple. Analysts suggest that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may have missed the deadline to file its appeal brief in the Ripple case and if the SEC does not file the brief, Ripple might request a resolution in its favor.
The SEC alleges that Ripple conducted an unregistered securities offering by selling XRP (XRP) tokens, thereby violating federal securities laws. However, other analysts contend that the SEC submitted its notice of appeal on Oct. 2, setting the deadline for the brief on Oct. 18.
On one hand, the stronger-than-expected macroeconomic data is unfavorable for Bitcoin’s short-term price. On the other hand, if the SEC loses the appeal in Ripple’s case, investors are likely to view it as a positive sign, potentially fueling renewed bullish momentum.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.