A sideways market has many bitcoin investors wondering if the downward volatility has finally subsided. As stated in our previous discussion of the bitcoin market, the $6,425 support level was a very important level to hold. A failure to maintain support at that price level would undoubtedly cascade the market into a test of deeper support values. Fortunately, the week started off with a decent bounce off the support level:
Figure 1: BTC-USD, 1-Day Candles, Support Level
Although the volume was not the best, the price managed to rally decently on a fairly wide spread. Currently, the price seems to be bound within a pseudo-trading range of sorts where it is meandering around, testing both support and resistance. Right now, it’s unclear whether this trading range is an accumulation or redistribution trading range, but it beginning to take form as the price ping-pongs around:
Figure 2: BTC-USD, 2-Hour Candles, Current Trading Range
At this moment, there is no discernable volume trend that would hint toward accumulation or distribution, which, for me, puts this in a no-trade-zone. If we zoom out to a higher timeframe, there is a strong argument that, because we broke out of such a prolonged symmetrical triangle, this is actually stepping-stone redistribution that will ultimately lead to a continuation of the down trend. We could even argue that current trading indicates a pretty sizeable bear flag:
Figure 3: BTC-USD, 12-Hour Candles, Bear Flag
This current trend has all the hallmarks of a bear flag: consolidating volume, a weakening upward trend and a downtrend that leads into the consolidation pattern. A flag of this magnitude would have an approximate measured move of $1,700 in the downward direction — an ultimate destination in the mid $4,000s.
Summary:
- The current market trend has managed to find support on the prior lows.
- However, the support seems to be on shaky ground as it is current trending in a pattern known as a bear flag.
- If the market manages to break out of this bear flag, we could reasonably see a test of the mid $4,000s.
Trading and investing in digital assets like bitcoin and ether is highly speculative and comes with many risks. This analysis is for informational purposes and should not be considered investment advice. Statements and financial information on Bitcoin Magazine and BTC Media related sites do not necessarily reflect the opinion of BTC Media and should not be construed as an endorsement or recommendation to buy, sell or hold. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.