Donald Trump’s chances of winning the presidential election, combined with historically bullish market conditions could be the “perfect storm” of price action that could push Bitcoin to an all-time high next month, analysts from crypto exchange Bitfinex said.
“The convergence of election uncertainty, the ‘Trump trade’ narrative, and favorable Q4 seasonality create a perfect storm for Bitcoin, promising an exciting period ahead regardless of noisy price movements heading into the election in two weeks' time.”
In an Oct. 28 market report, Bitfinex analysts said that despite Bitcoin (BTC) seeing outsized volatility from geopolitical unrest in the Middle East and other macroeconomic issues in the US, the anticipation of a potential Trump victory in the Nov. 5 election has seen its price rebound sharply.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was changing hands for $71,086, up 4.9% in the last 24 hours, per CoinGecko data, the highest in nearly five months.
Bitcoin has rallied nearly 5% in the last 24 hours. Source: CoinGekco
At current prices, Bitcoin is only a 3.4% move away from reclaiming its all-time high of $73,700, which it notched in March this year.
Explaining Bitcoin’s recent strength, analysts noted an intensifying “Trump trade” narrative, saying the correlation between upward price action for the crypto market and a Trump victory on Nov. 5 had increased significantly.
Trump currently leads Kamala Harris by a margin of 30% on the decentralized betting platform Polymarket, while Harris leads Trump by 1.5% in the national polls, according to 583 polling data.
Trump leads Harris by nearly 33% on Polymarket. Source: Polymarket
Related: Bitcoin hits $70K amid huge ETF inflow streak
Bitcoin’s upward move has come amid record open interest, reaching an all-time high of $41.7 billion on Oct. 29, reflecting a massive appetite for leveraged exposure to the asset, per CoinGlass data.
Bitcoin notched a new ATH open interest of $41.7 billion on Oct. 29. Source: CoinGlass
Bitifnex analysts also noted a steady build-up in call options on BTC for late December.
Combined with record open interest, they said the market is showing signs of positioning for a “post-election surge” that could propel Bitcoin beyond its all-time high of $73,800 following the election.
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