Bitcoin traded near $59,000 on Sept. 3 after a last-minute comeback delivered 3.2% daily gains.
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
BTC price: “Green” first week could be September outlier
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed promising Bitcoin (BTC) price action before the week’s first United States trading session.
Weakness around the monthly and weekly close did not last long, as despite a US market holiday, BTC/USD spiked to highs of $59,800 overnight.
“Constructive closes & confirmations, looking pretty good now,” popular trader Skew summarized in his latest analysis of the four-hour chart on X.
BTC/USDT 4-hour chart. Source: Skew
Skew noted that the price needed to complete various prerequisites to confirm upward continuation, among them a reading above 50 on the four-hour relative strength index (RSI). At the time of writing, this was at 48.9.
“Going forward would want to see the monthly open bought by passive buyers on pullbacks,” he added.
BTC/USD 4-hour chart with RSI data. Source: TradingView
Having started off in classic style, traditionally “red” September now began to look more interesting to market participants.
Fellow trader Daan Crypto Trades thus considered the odds of a mixed month ahead.
“So consensus is: September Bad, Q4 Good. What if: September insanely good, Q4 more chop/bleed. Now that would be pretty typical for this cycle,” part of an X post read.
In further analysis, he nonetheless acknowledged that “even in the bad months, the first week was green more often than not.”
BTC/USD 1-week chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades
Others saw standard behavioral patterns, albeit with a bullish outcome waiting in the wings.
“Dull market, which is usually the end stage before the party begins,” Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm MNTrading, continued.
“Regarding price action on $BTC: You'd really need to get a breakout above $61K to get the momentum back in the markets, otherwise, we continue to have this downward trend for a while.”
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X
Bitcoin, gold face familiar challenge
In its latest market bulletin to Telegram channel subscribers, trading firm QCP Capital warned that gold, which set a new all-time high in August, may join crypto heading downward.
Related: A classic ‘Rektember?’ 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week
This status quo could remain in place until October, which has historically been much more bullish.
“September is typically a bearish month not just for crypto but across all asset classes (with bonds lower in 8 out of the last 10 Septembers and Gold lower every year since 2017),” it wrote.
“October, however, has the strongest bullish seasonality, with BTC showing positive returns and an average gain of 22.9% in 8 out of the last 9 Octobers.”
QCP concluded that “if this pattern plays out again this year, it would be strategic to accumulate during the September dip and take profits in October or toward the year-end.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.