Bitcoin’s recovery to $66,000 saw it set a new higher high for the first time since the $73,835 all-time high set in March. Although Bitcoin’s price dropped under $60,000 this week, Glassnode said that multiple onchain metrics are hinting that the market might be “approaching a phase shift.”
This recovery, which has seen Bitcoin (BTC) rally as much as 26.5% from a low of $52,550 on Sept. 6 to a three-month high of $66.508 on Sept. 27, displays uncanny similarity to previous cycles, with the price trading in a nearly identical position.
“Both the 2015-16 [blue line], and 2019-20 [green] periods have traded in an oddly similar manner to the recovery seen in 2023-24 [black],” Glassnode analysts said in an Oct. 2 report.
“This price action provides the first inclinations that the structured downtrend may be approaching a phase shift.”
Bitcoin price performance since cycle low. Source: Glassnode
A deeper analysis of onchain metrics reveals an increasing number of coins are maturing into long-term holder (LTH) status.
Analyzing the long/short-term holder supply ratio to assess the balance between these cohorts, Glassnode analysis revealed that this ratio has reached its highest level since June 2021.
“This suggests that HODLing persists as the dominant behavior of Bitcoin investors.”
Bitcoin ong/short-term holder supply ratio percentage change. Source: Glassnode
This means that LTHs are increasing their positions, which is historically a bullish signal. When long-term investors accumulate, it often indicates confidence in the cryptocurrency’s future growth potential.
The report also highlighted that a large volume of Bitcoin acquired close to the $73,835 all-time high matured across the 155-day threshold, and the supply held at an unrealized loss by LTHs is increasing.
“However, the magnitude of unrealized loss held by these investors remains small in scale, suggesting minimal financial pressure imposed on their portfolios.”
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Perhaps the report’s most significant insight comes from the analysis of the short-term holder (STH) market value to realized value (MVRV) metric, which, Glassnode analysts noted, reveals a “clear improvement” in this cohort’s profitability during the recent rally.
To put this into context, Glassnode analysts examined the percentage of STH supply held in profit and found that more than 62% of their supply is now held in a profitable position, providing relief for buyers who recently acquired their coins.
“The recovery also places the Percent Supply in Profit near the long-term average for this metric, which is a noteworthy rebound.”
Bitcoin STH percentage supply in profit. Source: Glassnode
These onchain metrics suggest that the average Bitcoin investor is in a “better and more profitable position” compared to just a few weeks ago, “making this an interesting moment in time” for BTC, Glassnode analysts concluded.
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