Bitcoin is headed “a lot higher” as a classic on-chain metric calls for the resumption of the bull run.
In its latest update on June 4, quantitative Bitcoin (BTC) and digital asset fund Capriole Investments revealed “tempting” signals from the hash ribbons metric.
Capriole’s Edwards: “Hash Ribbons is back”
Bitcoin miners have been forced to readjust since April’s block subsidy halving, and hash rate — the estimated aggregate processing power they dedicate to the network — confirms it.
After hitting all-time highs in March, the Bitcoin mining hash rate has cooled and is currently consolidating lower. For Capriole founder Charles Edwards, this is standard behavior as miners conform to a new economic reality.
The result is Bitcoin’s Hash Ribbons dropping into a new “capitulation” phase — a classic, if controversial, BTC buy signal.
“Hash Ribbons is back,” he summarized.
“Perhaps the best long-term Bitcoin buy signal there is, Hash Ribbons is now tempting us with the current Miner Capitulation which started two weeks ago.”
The metric measures the 60-day moving average of hash rate against its 30-day equivalent. Capitulation occurs when the latter drops below the former, signaling a slowdown.
“You will often see Miner Capitulations sync with shuttering of miner operations, bankruptcies and takeovers. As in the current instance, they also often sync with the Bitcoin Halvings,” Edward explained.
“The Bitcoin Halving means that old, inefficient mining hardware becomes obsolete and no longer profitable to run (costs exceed revenue from the block reward). These mining rigs will typically then be phased out over several weeks following the Halving resulting in falling hash rates. Just as we are seeing today.”
Continuing, Capriole highlighted a relationship between hash ribbons weakness and broader corrective BTC price conditions. In the long term, however, such periods are followed by protracted upside.
The last capitulation event occurred in August 2023, when BTC/USD traded at around $25,000.
“Hash Ribbons signals are either loved or ridiculed. Every occurrence brings some debate about their relevance today, or why the current signal perhaps doesn’t count,” Edwards wrote.
“This also happened in 2023, but price was also trading in the $20Ks when the last Hash Ribbon buy signal occurred, suggesting this metric still has incredible predictive power today.”
Data hints BTC price “going a lot higher”
As Cointelegraph continues to report, various on-chain indicators are flashing rare bull signals even after nearly three months of BTC price consolidation.
Related: Bitcoin battles key resistance as trader flags $100K BTC price ‘magnet’
Other analysis sees a classic post-halving “reaccumulation phase” in progress — something which again chimes with historical norms and typically results in upside continuation.
Overall geopolitical and macroeconomic conditions also favor crypto, Edwards says.
“This update we have incredible confluence of technicals and fundamentals which suggest Bitcoin is going a lot higher,” he concluded.
“We are currently entering the summer months, typically a financial lull, so it may take some time to kick start the next impulse up, but given the data on hand that is also not a necessity.”
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.