Bitcoin’s summer lull could finally come to an end with a bullish breakout if it manages to close the month of August in the green.
To close August in the green, Bitcoin’s (BTC) price needs a monthly close above $64,300, which would require an over 7% rally from the current $59,960.
While the monthly candle close is difficult to predict, Bitcoin’s recent price action is a positive sign, according to Bitfinex analysts, who told Cointelegraph:
“Bitcoin reclaiming recently lost key levels like $64,000 and $61,500 are bullish signs […] The current market is still illiquid, and we continuously have low-volume volatile moves. The current move lower is an unwinding of perps and spot long positions that had entered the market before the Jackson Hole conference.”
BTC/USD, 1-month chart. Source: Cointelegraph
Bitcoin’s price has been struggling to trade above the $60,000 psychological mark. The world’s first cryptocurrency is down over 12% on the monthly chart, according to Cointelegraph data.
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Bitcoin struggles to overcome $63,900 resistance
Analysts warned that the lack of liquidity characteristic of the summer could carry on into September and bring downside volatility.
Thus, Bitcoin will struggle to overcome the $63,900 resistance, according to Bitfinex analysts, who added:
“Price is a reflection of historical market transactions; we must look under the hood. Price rallied up to the Short Term Holder (STH) realized price of around $63,900 currently, and thus, we also saw some profit-taking from the STH cohort.”
BTC/USD, 1-day chart, $63,900 resistance. Source: TradingView
Bitcoin’s average returns for the month of September were negative at -4.78% since 2013, according to analysts.
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Lower interest rates could trigger Bitcoin bull market in early 2025: Nexo
Bitcoin’s price remains range-bound between $58,000 and $64,000 amid the summer illiquidity.
However, a period of lower interest rates could trigger a parabolic run for Bitcoin, according to Kristian Haralampiev, structured products lead at Nexo.
He told Cointelegraph:
“Should lower interest rates come into effect to create a strong tailwind for BTC, then the bull market may only be taking a breather now before intense growth returns in early-to-mid 2025.”
Investors are increasingly expecting an interest rate cut from the United States Federal Reserve at its upcoming meeting on Sept. 18.
Odds of an interest rate cut. Source: CME FedWatch
According to the latest data from the CME FedWatch tool, the odds of a 25 basis-point rate cut currently stand at 65.5%, while the odds of a 50 basis-point rate cut are at 34.5%.
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