Bitcoin price is up by more than 120 percent since the start of 2019, yet several indicators say FOMO-driven hype is yet to begin.
Litany of Missed Opportunities
In 2018, there were several iterations of the “if you bought bitcoin in early 2017, you’d have made ‘xyz’ percent.” Starting out at below $1,000 in January 2017, BTC nearly topped $20,000 in mid-December of that same year.
FOLLOW THE LINE: What is FOMO?
#cryptobasics #cryptotrading pic.twitter.com/UNny6tPmwm
— Bitstamp (@Bitstamp) May 31, 2019
Hype driven by the fear of missing out (FOMO) only took hold in mid-November 2017 as BTC moved from $7,500 to $19,700 in just a few weeks. Enticed by the 1,800 percent gain and ‘cryptomania’ at fever pitch, people bought at what turned out to be the ‘top.’
So, when the 80 percent decline of 2018 came, these traders had incurred massive losses (if they bought and sold at the extremes). With the benefit of hindsight, entering a position after a 1,800 percent rise seemed illogical.
Savvy investors know to buy the dip and take profits at the top – though BTC purists would prefer to ‘hodl’ until bitcoin inevitably ‘moons.’ So, with lessons learned, the narrative shifted to buying the dip – waiting for bitcoin to fall sufficiently enough to form a logical re-entry point.
Then in late 2018, BTC fell a further 50 percent to a yearly low of $3,100. Smart money moved in at this point and by now, well, such investors are up 155 percent.
I keep reading that people want a 50% dip or more to buy in. Reminder that on the prior 100x bullrun from $200 to $20,000, we had precisely zero 50% dips pic.twitter.com/RsI6yrF5LF
— BomboBTC (@BtcBombo) June 3, 2019
As previously reported by Bitcoinist, bitcoin FOMO as indicated by metrics such as social media interest and Google searches are still way below levels seen during cryptomania of 2017.
Conservative forecasts from different commentators put 2019 as a year of consolidation with bitcoin likely being range-bound between $7,000 and $10,000.
There is, however, an overarching narrative of bitcoin going parabolic and breaking the previous all-time high (ATH) as the 2020 halving is now less than a year away.
Not only that, bitcoin as an asset has moved on from being a speculative playground to attracting massive interest from the likes of Fidelity, TD Ameritrade, and even Microsoft to mention a few.
You Probably Already Missed The Bitcoin Bottom
So, why would people prefer to come in at $80,000 per BTC rather than at $8,000 per BTC? It may have something to do with “herd mentality” as Binance research put it back in April 2019.
While retail FOMO remains low, the big-money players are gobbling up the lot. Between Grayscale and Jack Dorsey’s Cash App buying up a total of 31 percent of the BTC monthly supply, those on the sidelines may already be too late to the party. That is, if you were waiting for the bottom, which may have already came and went.
To put it in perspective, if bitcoin does hit $100,000 as some analysts predict, would it really matter if your entry is at $3K or $8K…or even $15K?
Whales Quietly Accumulating Bitcoin
Back in May 2019, Bitcoinist reported that only about 732,000 addresses hold more than 1 BTC. Whale wallets continue to play the market, accumulating coins with little or no outflows.
Only 636,813 more bitcoin will be mined before the next halvening.
Think that leaves plenty for you?
Think again.@CashApp is buying 10% of it.@GrayscaleInvest is buying 21% of it.
— Rhythm (@Rhythmtrader) June 3, 2019
In other words, there are less than 636,000 more bitcoins left until the next halving. By the time FOMO sets in, it might be too late unless it happens at $10,000 as predicted by Fundstrat’s Tom Lee.
Are you among those waiting for another 80 percent decline to buy Bitcoin? Let us know in the comments below.
Images via Twitter @Bitstamp, @BtcBombo, @Rhythmtrader and Bitcoinist archives, Shutterstock