Bitcoin (BTC) price is consolidating below its 2021 all-time high of $69,000, and independent trader Bob Loukas believes that the price is entering an “explosive” period of its four-year cycle.
“Bitcoin closes the 2nd year of its 4-year cycle next month, entering the 3rd and historically explosive year of the Cycle,” Loukas noted in an Oct. 8 post on X.
Loukas uses a four-year cycle to identify tops and bottoms in the Bitcoin market. The historical similarities could help investors identify when the market peaks in the current cycle.
Loukas sees Bitcoin currently accumulating in a descending broadening wedge following its drop from $73,835 all-time highs reached on March 14. He predicts that Bitcoin could soon enter a parabolic uptrend, buoyed by shifting investor investment and interest rate cuts.
“An 8-month base has been built, sentiment reset, and rates are easing. I mean, the script is perfect.”
BTC/USD monthly chart. Source: Bob Loukas
Loukas analysis comes in light of general market uncertainty and fear, driven by continued geopolitical tensions, the upcoming US presidential election and doubts about the health of the US economy.
Given the above, bulls may have to hold out the eight-month base in October by producing a monthly candlestick close above the upper trending line of the broadening wedge pattern to confirm entry into the third year of the cycle.
Related: Bitcoin price faltered at $64K again — Here’s why
In light of this optimistic outlook, analysts at blockchain analytics firm Santiment observed heightened levels of investor interest in Bitcoin in quarter 4.. They said:
“Analysts and community members continue their optimism about "Uptober" and the potential for a bull run in 2024. There is also a growing institutional interest in Bitcoin, particularly with the anticipation of further spot ETFs.”
Recent sentiment for Bitcoin. Source: Santiment
If speculative buying continues, the resulting FOMO could lead to s significant bounce, as predicted by Loukas.
Furthermore, with rising institutional demand and a return of net inflows to US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs, Bitcoin is likely to follow the positive Q4 narrative and continue its four-year cycle.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.