Bitcoin (BTC) newbies are not showing signs that the bull market top is in, new research agrees.
In a Quicktake blog post on Jan. 28, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant said new investor participation had yet to reach “extreme levels.”
Bitcoin cycle top “warning signs” not visible
Bitcoin bull markets are typically characterized by a high proportion of transactions involving newer market entrants, while old hands brace for lower, CryptoQuant says.
Referencing bull market peaks in 2013, 2017 and 2021, contributor IT Tech showed that the current BTC price cycle is still far from its notional blow-off top. This is due to unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) including from both recently-active and long-dormant coins.
“The latest increase in younger UTXOs suggests a growing participation of newer market entrants,” he reported.
“However, we are not yet at the extreme levels seen during previous cycle peaks.”
Bitcoin UTXO age data (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant
An accompanying chart split UTXOs by coin age, with “young” coins described as being dormant for no longer than three months.
Blow-off top territory, it reveals, is typically marked by these coins accounting for more than 70% of UTXOs — signalling a sense of “FOMO” among inexperienced traders.
“The chart suggests that we are entering a phase of increased market activity, but the proportion of young UTXOs is not yet at the historical peak levels,” the post concluded.
“This could mean that Bitcoin still has room for further upside, but traders should closely monitor the ratio of young coins to long-term holdings for potential warning signs of a top.”
The phenomenon is also being tracked by other crypto industry sources, including onchain analytics firm Glassnode.
With young coins accounting for just over half of UTXOs at present, “the proportion of wealth held by new Bitcoin investors (24H to 3 months), is still well below the levels seen during previous ATH cycle tops,” it confirmed in a post on X.
“Off to the races” on $110,000 BTC price close
As Cointelegraph continues to report, market participants expect BTC price upside continuation to eventually result from current sideways movements.
Related: Bitcoin bull market at risk? 7 indicators warn of BTC price ‘cycle top’
A $20,000 range has held for more than two months, leading to increasing conviction that, sooner or later, price will escape.
For popular trader Jelle, all that is needed is a daily close above recent all-time highs near $110,000.
“This bullish pennant has a target of roughly $145,000. Broke out, and retested successfully,” he told X followers alongside a BTC/USD chart on the day.
“Daily close above $110,000 and we're off to the races.”
BTC/USD chart. Source: Jelle/X
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.