A recent report from an analyst, “Crypto Researcher,” dives directly into the implications of a Bitcoin ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) for the cryptocurrency’s price. The potential launch of this financial instrument has already impacted the nascent market, but this report expects a massive balance shift upon its approval in the US.
Bitcoin ETF Set To Transform BTC Market
According to the analyst, the spot Bitcoin ETF proposal filed by asset manager BlackRock will inevitably get approval from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). As its CEO shows, the asset manager is betting on this launch.
Just yesterday, BlackRock’s top executive Larry Fink publicly defended Bitcoin and crypto. This interview coincided with speculation that the US regulator approved the Bitcoin ETF. These rumors were confirmed untruth by Fink and others.
However, BlackRock’s CEO saw the rally as a signal that institutions are increasingly interested in cryptocurrency. The rally was driven, according to Fink, by investors “fleeting” to Bitcoin as a “quality” asset.
In this scenario, where the Bitcoin ETF is imminently launched in the US, “Crypto Researcher” claims that crypto investors should focus on the amount of capital that will flow into this product. For example, when BlackRock launched its iShares Gold ETF, the product absorbed $25 billion in market capitalization.
The Gold ETF market is more significant, holding over $85 billion in capital. Ever since the launch of these financial products in the US, the underlying asset’s price has skyrocketed to new highs.
An additional factor comes into the picture with the current macroeconomic situation. Launching a Bitcoin ETF could combine with a shift in this landscape, propelling Bitcoin back into uncharted territory. The analyst stated:
As a recession looms in Europe and US inflation appears to be in check, the money printing machines will eventually be switched on again, which is when Bitcoin will thrive. No matter where you stand on this inflation/deflation question, having exposure to both might be a worthy hedge. It is fair to assume that 10-20% of those Gold ETF holdings would be switched to Bitcoin (…).
Shorts Should Stay Out Of The Way
If this scenario continues, the Bitcoin ETF market could take over $16 billion in capital inflows. As seen in the chart below, the analyst used Tether (USDT) as a proxy to gauge the potential impact of these inflows.
For every $2 billion in inflows with USDT, the price of Bitcoin experienced a 4% rally. In other words, Bitcoin could soar above $37,500 if the ETF market injects $16 billion in capital.
Addressing yesterday’s speculation, the analyst said:
As the example shows, Bitcoin rallied +10% without an official statement by the SEC, based on an unconfirmed news source. In that case, the actual approval can have a more pronounced impact, and a +20-30% rally appears to be a reasonable assumption – which would imply $16-24 billion of Bitcoin ETF inflows.
Cover image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview